home / Main dishes/ Marketing research of the confectionery market. Sample business plan for a restaurant

Marketing research of the confectionery market. Sample business plan for a restaurant

The Russian confectionery market has undergone major changes since 2013. To find out the prospects for its development, let's look at the factors that influence the choice of sweets and what Russian confectioners offer consumers today. We will analyze the confectionery market over the past 4 years and identify the main trends.

Confectionery are sweets that have a high nutritional value. They are beautifully decorated, have a pronounced taste. The composition of such products most often includes; sugar or its substitutes, fats, flour, stabilizers, dyes, starch, nuts, cocoa and other products.

Branding agency KOLORO will design or carry out packaging!

Confectionery products are divided into 3 groups:

chocolate: chocolate, bars, chocolates ;
sugary: sweets, caramel, marshmallows, marmalade, marshmallow, toffee, dragee;
flour: cookies, cakes, cakes, biscuits, waffles

Statistics show that on average a resident of Europe eats 6 kg of sweets per year. Russians are less likely to prefer sweet foods. According to expert estimates, in the period from 2014 to 2016, on average, one Russian had 4.5 kg of sweets per year. Until 2014, this figure was 5.1 kg.

An analysis of the confectionery market in Russia shows that the decline in demand is due to an increase in prices. In 2015, prices for raw materials increased, and confectioners raised their retail prices by an average of:

11% - sugary products;
15% — flour sweets;
26% - chocolate products.

Manufacturers of confectionery products in Russia have changed their approach to production during the crisis. To optimize costs and maintain sales levels, the following steps were taken:

the weight and size of packages and confectionery products has decreased;
new confectionery products appeared on the market. Instead of standard chocolate bars, they began to produce mini-formats.
confectionery manufacturers often position chocolates as a gift.

An analysis of the confectionery market in 2016 revealed that the demand for chocolate eggs with a toy is constantly growing. More and more companies are mastering this segment, and new confectionery products appeared on the shelves in 2016. Details about the situation on the market chocolate products read .

An analysis of the flour confectionery market in Russia shows that until 2015 this market occupied one of the leading positions in terms of growth rates. A further decline in sales growth is due to a decrease in purchasing power. The exchange rate of the ruble fell, the incomes of the population decreased. The first item of savings among grocery products fell on confectionery. The decline in demand was felt more strongly by foreign manufacturers, because the price for their products increased several times. Buyers still choose sweets impulsively, but, as the analysis of the Russian confectionery market shows, they pay more attention to the price. Cost has become a key factor influencing the purchase decision.

Despite the time of crisis, parents are still ready to pamper their children by buying chocolate products with a toy for them. Most often, such confectionery products are made in the form of an egg, in which there is a container with a small toy. Market chocolate eggs with toys showed an increase of 8-10% until 2015. After 2015, the growth rate fell to 1.1%, and in 2016 it was only 0.3%.

Most of the population prefers eco-products. For example, chocolate without preservatives and with nuts as a filler. The Russian confectionery market responds to demand and adjusts the range of products.

Features of the confectionery market in Russia

The Russian confectionery market is characterized by a number of features:

a short period of sale of goods;
complex logistics due to long distances;
tradition home baking;
big choice Russian raw materials;
high competition among manufacturers of confectionery products in the low price segment;
low competition in the premium segment;
the main producers in the flour segment are small businesses.

Confectionery business in Russia

According to Nielsen Russia, sales in the confectionery market fell by 2.4% in 2016. In 2015, the market contraction was only 0.1%. The sharp decline is associated with a shock rise in prices that occurred in 2015. Most likely, the decline continued in 2016, but its pace slowed down. In 2016, prices rose by 9.4% against an 18.4% increase in 2015.

The demand for chocolate bars and loose biscuits — by 10.6% and 11%. Prices for chocolate bars have increased due to the increase in the cost of raw materials. By weight cookies belong to the low price segment, but are not very popular among Russians. Manufacturers maintain interest in their products by introducing new confectionery products to the market and holding promotions at points of sale. This made it possible to increase sales of biscuits in packs by 0.8%, wafers - by 0.6%, marshmallows and marshmallows - by 1.7%.

Confectionery manufacturers: industry leaders

"Red October". The company produces more than three hundred types of sweets;
Rot Front. The manufacturer supplies the market with about 50 thousand tons of sweets per year.
"Babaevsky". This confectionery concern produces more than 129 items.
"Russian chocolate". The manufacturer sells its products in Russia and in countries near and far abroad.
"Yasnaya Polyana". The plant is part of the Red October group.

Confectionery manufacturers from Moscow are leading in the chocolate segment

Import and export of confectionery products in 2017

The volume of imports of confectionery decreased by about half. Imports of the chocolate segment fell by 27.6%.

An overview of the confectionery market shows that export volumes have remained at the level of previous years. However, the profit in monetary terms decreased, which was caused by the weakening of the ruble. Exports are affected by rising prices for basic raw materials such as sugar, cocoa beans, additives and other ingredients. An increase in export volumes is observed in the segment of flour products. It grew by 11.2% to 9.9 thousand tons in kind and by 4.1% in money terms. Chocolate products showed an increase of 14.1% to 8.1 thousand tons and 6.5% in monetary terms. The main export market for Russian confectionery products is China.

Branding agency KOLORO will develop an effective brand for Russian confectionery.

New trends in confectionery production:

The premium segment of the confectionery market demonstrates stable performance. The novelties of the confectionery market are due to the attempts of manufacturers to clearly segment the target audience and maintain attention to their products. AT last years confectionery novelties appeared on the market.

chocolate with an unusual taste. The popularity of this type of chocolate came to Russia from Europe. On the shelves in supermarkets you can find chocolate bars with lime, pepper, salt and other flavors that are unusual for the consumer.
bitter chocolate. There is a growing demand for natural dark chocolate with a high percentage of cocoa beans. The increased interest is caused by the boom in a healthy lifestyle. Manufacturers emphasize that dark chocolate has high antioxidant properties and is able to prolong the life of body cells.
confectionery for the elderly. Manufacturers have identified a narrow target audience, which they offer products with a special composition.

Forecast for the development of the confectionery market in Russia for 2018

We should expect that the confectionery market in Russia in 2017, despite the decline in sales, will show growth. It is driven by an increase in exports. However, according to the forecast of the Center for Confectionery Market Research, a decline in demand for products such as marshmallows, biscuits, marshmallows is possible. Today, the demand for the chocolate segment continues to fall, but consumer interest in products from this category is expected to increase soon.

The growth of the chocolate segment at the level of 1% per year until 2020 is possible due to the improvement of the economy as a whole. Sharp jumps in product prices are not expected. Manufacturers find new ways to attract customers: they develop an optimal pricing policy, bring new products to the market and package them in original packaging. This is good news for the confectionery market.

Branding agency KOLORO will develop a unique or redesign packaging. We know how to attract the attention of consumers to your products.

Relevance

The Russian confectionery market is one of the largest markets world, yielding in kind only to the US market. One of the features of this market is a high level of concentration - a significant share of its mass segment is almost constantly controlled by 5-6 leading players, and the role of local manufacturers increases in positions that require more detailed elaboration of the nomenclature due to regional characteristics, as well as in the positions of perishable products.

Target

Analysis of the Russian market of premium confectionery products

Short description

The first chapter of the marketing research of the premium confectionery market provides an overview of the market. The main characteristics of the market are considered, the factors influencing the market are estimated, the share of imports in the market is given.

The second chapter of the marketing research analyzes imports in the confectionery market in 2015. The volume and dynamics of imports are shown, the structure of imports is compiled by producing countries (in volume and value terms) and by manufacturing companies (in volume and value terms).

The result of the study was a forecast of the market situation for 2017.

Content

Part 1. REVIEW OF THE RUSSIAN CONFECTIONERY MARKET

1.1.Main characteristics of the market

1.2.Evaluation of factors affecting the market

1.3.Share of imports in the market

1.4.Dynamics of the volume and capacity of the market (2013 - 2015)

1.5. Market structure by types of products

Part 2. IMPORT ANALYSIS IN THE CONFECTIONERY MARKET (2015)

2.1 Volume and dynamics of imports

2.2 Import structure:

2.2.1. by producing countries (in physical and value terms)

2.2.2. by manufacturing companies (in physical and value terms)

Part 3. COMPETITOR ANALYSIS

3.1.Major players in the market

3.2. Market shares of the largest competitors

Part 4. MARKET FORECAST FOR 2017

Chart example

Research excerpt
“...the premium confectionery market has a significant potential for import substitution, since 25-27% of premium products are imported goods. But, it is impossible to predict a rapid and large-scale growth in the volume of Russian premium products. Economic factors have a negative impact on the market situation - they impede the renewal of the material and technical base of production and the growth of household incomes. Despite all the difficulties of the economic situation, manufacturers of the premium segment confectionery products there is no threat of a decrease in consumption, since the market has a certain immunity ... "

List of diagrams

Diagram 1. Dynamics of Russia's GDP, in % to the previous year

Diagram 2. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate against the ruble, Jan. 2015-Oct. 2016, rub. for 1 US dollar

Diagram 3. Dynamics of real incomes of the population of the Russian Federation, 2010 - II quarter. 2016

Diagram 4. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, RF, 2007-2015, 2016 forecast

Diagram 5. The share of imported confectionery products in the Russian market, by weight of goods, 2013

Diagram 6. The share of imported confectionery products in the Russian market, by weight of goods, 2015

Diagram 7. The structure of the production of confectionery products (all types) by the Federal Districts of Russia, at the end of 2015

Diagram 8. The structure of the confectionery market by type of product, in physical terms, 2015

Diagram 9. Structure of the main types of confectionery products, in kind, 2015

Diagram 10. Volume and dynamics of imports of all types of confectionery products to Russia, million dollars, January 2014 - July 2016

Diagram 11. Volume and dynamics of imports of all types of confectionery products to Russia, thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016

Diagram 12. The volume and dynamics of imports of sugar confectionery (including white chocolate) to Russia, in million dollars and thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016 (code 1704)

Diagram 13. The volume and dynamics of imports of flour confectionery, cakes, cookies, etc., in million dollars and thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016 (code 1905)

Diagram 14. The volume and dynamics of imports of chocolate and cocoa products to Russia, in million dollars and thousand tons, January 2014 - July 2016 (code 1806)

Diagram 15. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of the amount in $, 2014

Diagram 16. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of mass, 2014

Diagram 17. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of the amount in $, 2015

Diagram 18. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of mass, 2015

Diagram 19. Structure of imports to Russia of chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa (TN VED code 1806), share of the amount in $, I-VII months. 2016

Diagram 20. Structure of imports of flour confectionery products to Russia (TN VED code 1905), share of the amount in $, 2015

Diagram 21. The structure of imports to Russia of flour confectionery products (TN VED code 1905), share of the mass, 2015

Diagram 22. Structure of imports to Russia of sugar confectionery products (including white chocolate) that do not contain cocoa (TN VED code 1704), share of the amount in $, 2015

Diagram 23. Structure of imports to Russia of sugar confectionery products (including white chocolate) that do not contain cocoa (TN VED code 1704), share of mass, 2015

Diagram 24. Structure of imports to Russia of all types of confectionery, share of the amount in $, 2015

Diagram 25. The structure of imports to Russia of all types of confectionery, share of the mass, 2015

Diagram 26. Market shares of the largest players-manufacturers of the "premium" segment of products

Diagram 27. Dynamics of GDP growth in the Russian Federation, forecast up to 2030, %

Diagram 28. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, forecast until 2020

List of tables
Table 1. Factors affecting the confectionery market in the Russian Federation

Table 2. Index of industrial production by constituent entities of the Russian Federation (in % of the previous year), 2010-2015

Table 3. Population of Russia, Moscow and the region, 2009 - 2015

Table 4. Volume and capacity of the Russian confectionery market, 2013 - 2015

Table 5. Volumes of imports of confectionery products in two price segments, 2015, tons

Table 9. The largest players-manufacturers of the "premium" segment of products

To identify consumer preferences, a survey was conducted among residents of the city of Almaty. The survey was conducted in crowded areas, in different age groups: 15-20 years old (12% of respondents), 21-25 years old (22%), 26-30 years old (11%), 31-40 years old (16%), over 40 years (39% of respondents). When buying confectionery products, the majority of respondents named quality along with affordability as a decisive factor. The majority of consumers (30%) buy confectionery products two or three times a month. Young people make purchases several times a week, they are mainly interested in chocolate bars. About 20% of the respondents buy confectionery products less than once a month (these are mostly low-income buyers, pensioners).

As a result of the survey, consumer preferences were identified in relation to confectionery products from various manufacturers, whose products are presented on the market in Almaty (table 5)

Age group of consumers
				over 40 years
	Karaganda
Karaganda
		Karaganda	Karaganda	Karaganda
	the Baltics	the Baltics	the Baltics	the Baltics
the Baltics			Kostanay

As the data of the above table show, among the population of Almaty, confectionery products of the local factory Rakhat JSC, Karaganda and Russian factories are most preferred (60% of the respondents indicated Rakhat JSC in their answers, 45% indicated Russia, 41% - Karaganda). These manufacturers are traditional leaders. Confectionery products of Baltic production are at the average level of preferences - 21% of respondents indicated exactly them.

An analysis of consumer responses by age group showed that among young people aged 15 to 25, confectionery products made in Karaganda and Russia are the most preferable. This is due to the higher susceptibility of this age group to promotional activities actively carried out by the above manufacturers. The population aged 26 years and above prefers the products of Rakhat JSC and is the main market for the products of this enterprise. A positive attitude towards the products of the local factory has been brought up by the older generation for years. This is due to the practice of the so-called “funding” or “release” of products that existed in the days of the planned economy, according to which the USSR Ministry of Trade issued obligatory tasks for certain enterprises in the confectionery industry to supply their products to regional state wholesale buyers. As a result for a particular trademark- high and medium popularity in some regions of Kazakhstan and almost complete obscurity in others. Thus, consumers of Karaganda over the age of 19 give the first place to the products of the Karaganda confectionery factory of Zhanar JSC. Young people, like their peers from Almaty, prefer imported products from Russia and abroad.

The main task for OA “Rakhat”, arising from the results of the survey, is to attract young people (15-25 years old) to their products. This age group is a potential market, and it is necessary to win the commitment of these consumers to their products. This requires strengthening promotional activities aimed at people of this age through youth-oriented media. In addition, it is possible to distribute products through new distribution channels that are more used by young people - commercial kiosks, bars, nightclubs, discos, etc. This applies to packaged products, chocolate.

Additionally, it is possible to carry out activities to promote the consumption of products of Rakhat JSC, also aimed at young people. In the course of a consumer survey, demand was revealed for confectionery products that are not in the assortment of Rakhat JSC and for gum products (marmalade on gelatin). The results of this area of the survey are presented in Table 6.

Table 6 - Consumer preferences for products that are not in the assortment of Rakhat JSC (% of those who indicated this product)

As Table 6 shows, the most preferred products are chocolate bars, chocolate paste, chocolate with filling. These products have been on the confectionery market for a long time and have established themselves as having a constant stable demand. Regarding the rest of the goods, we can say that they are objectively new goods on the market and the demand for them has not yet been formed.

In the course of a survey of consumers, consumer preferences for certain groups of goods were revealed. In particular, the results of studying the demand for bar chocolate showed the popularity of German and Russian production(69% of respondents indicated Germany in their answers, 53% named Russia). Among the imported brands, Fazer (Poland) turned out to be the most famous.

Also, during the survey, the demand for different types of chocolate was revealed:

-milk with additions was named by 50% of the respondents;
-milk without additives was named by 42% of respondents;
- dark with additions - 53%;
- dark without additions - 57%;
- white with additions - 15%;
- white without additives - 36%;
- with filler - 45%.

As you can see, the most preferred types of chocolate are dark with and without additions, milk with additions, and chocolate with filling.

As additions to chocolate, large nuts, raisins, fruit and berry filling are the most popular among consumers. Neutral attitude to additives such as caramel mass and coconut crumbs. They are not popular as additions to chocolate, grated nuts and waffle crumbs.

One of the objectives of the study was to study the iris market and identify consumer preferences for the shape of this product.

The study of the market in Almaty showed that in outlets selling confectionery products, toffee is represented mainly by Rakhat JSC and Russian manufacturers (Moscow, St. Petersburg), a small share is occupied by products from the Baltic states. Russian-made iris is widely represented mainly only in retail outlets specializing in the sale of confectionery products from Russia, as well as in large retail enterprises. In stores selling iris of Russian and Almaty production, iris produced by Rakhat JSC is in the greatest demand (74% of respondents). Buyers explain their choice by the fact that, with the same quality, Almaty iris is more affordable (retail prices for Russian-made iris exceed the prices for Kazakhstani products by an average of 30%).

70% of the range of Russian-made iris are square, the survey results showed that the choice of consumers in general does not depend on the shape of the iris, but the square shape is slightly preferable. Buyers explain this by the unusual appearance, attractiveness for children. For most of the respondents, the shape of the iris does not matter.

One of the promising types of confectionery is halva. The market review showed that halva in Almaty is represented by Russian factories (Kabardino-Balkarian, Moscow "Rot Front" and Rostov). Halva is available in weight and packaged form, as well as glazed with chocolate. Bulk halva is sold to a greater extent through the street network in the markets of the city, which is also packaged through grocery stores. Halva by weight is present in the assortment of each outlet selling confectionery products, as well as among non-specialized sellers among other products. Packaged halva is present in the range of 90% of retail outlets, which indicates a significant offer on the market for this product. Demand has a different character depending on the type of halvah. So, halva by weight is in the highest demand. However, there are some fluctuations in demand. For packaged products (mainly 300g), the demand is at an average level. Halva, glazed with chocolate, is practically not in demand. The reason for this is the novelty and high price of this product.

In Almaty, halva is currently produced by several private workshops. Their products are not of high quality, which has led to a negative attitude of buyers towards halva produced in Almaty.

One of the priority directions of the commodity policy of confectionery enterprises is the development of packaging and product packaging. In this direction, a survey of consumers was conducted with a demonstration of samples, with the aim of revealing the preferences of buyers regarding packaging and weight of packages.

As an example, to determine the packaging, a dragee was taken, which is currently sold by weight. The respondent was asked to choose the most preferable type of packaging for him from the three proposed options: a cardboard art box, a 200 g plastic bag and an 80 g plastic bag. The answers were distributed as follows:

Variant % of respondents

Cardboard art box 70%

Cellophane bag (200 g) 18%

Cellophane bag (80 g) 8%

By weight 4%

As you can see, the cardboard art box has the greatest preference among consumers. Respondents motivate their choice by convenience, practicality, and aesthetics.

According to the weight of the packages, it was proposed to choose the most preferred option for toffee, caramel and sweets from those offered: 150 g, 200 g, 300 g, 500 g, by weight, other. Table 7 shows the answers of the respondents by the weight of the packages.

Table 7 - Consumer preferences by package weight, % of respondents

The results of a consumer survey regarding the weight of packages showed that for toffee and caramel, the majority tends to the 200 gram option. For sweets (“Forget-Me-Not”, “Premiere”, “School”, “Lastochka”, “Petrel”), the greatest preference among consumers was a cellophane bag with sweets weighing 250g.

Such studies allow us to develop further plans for the development of the enterprise.

I want to note the serious changes in the Russian confectionery market, which have affected me, my family, and have not passed by each of you and your loved ones. These changes open up new opportunities, and it is precisely today that the confectionery store as a business is promising and timely. What are these changes, why a small business in the confectionery industry gets new chances for development, we will understand in a detailed article.

The history of the confectionery business spans over 20 centuries. The first merchants of sweets arrived in the territory of modern Europe from the east as early as the 6th-5th century BC. Primitive lollipops, simple pastries, cottage cheese and sugar baklava were on the tables of the ancient nobility. In the Middle Ages, spices were brought to Europe from India and chocolate from South America. It was a revolutionary moment in the history of the confectionery business.

In France, coffee shops and chocolate shops were opened, in England, scones (a kind of cupcakes), popular to this day, appeared. Russian pretzels and pies also aroused interest abroad. However, it was not until the end of the 18th century that cultural traditions, different confectionery techniques, textures and completely different ingredients could be combined, and the next century is considered the birth of world confectionery cooking. France is considered to be its homeland. But there is another, no less popular direction of confectionery art - the eastern one.

It is difficult to compare French desserts and oriental delights, baklava and Saint Honoré, Turkish delight and Tiramisu. However, oriental techniques for making sweets have about 40% of fans all over the world, so you can’t ignore them.

Consumer demand for sweets has been at a high level for almost 300 years. Moreover, the change in market conditions is obvious: if back in the 1920s gingerbread and cakes were bought as a festive attribute, now the culture of consumption of sweets brings sweet dishes into everyday consumption.

We regularly see pastry shops and coffee houses on the streets, offering a wide range of complex and simple sweets. Strudels, cheesecakes, brownies, muffins, cupcakes are waiting for us at gas stations, in the halls of business centers, in parks and theater buffets, in street stalls and even McDonald's. Confectionery products from the group of elite privileged products have moved into the category of fast food.

But even this serious market change is not the root cause for a new round of development in the small business segment. The fact that cakes and pastries have become the usual affordable “fast food” for every day has led to their reduction in price at the expense of quality. Instead of butter confectioners use spreads, instead of vegetable fats - animal or synthetic, etc. This makes the cost of the product lower, which allows you to survive in the competition.

The main features of the confectionery market in Russia

The Russian confectionery environment, thanks to the fundamental school of the Soviet Union, has a good quality theoretical and practical base. However, due to the closeness of Soviet policy, a moment of flexibility was lost. Now the dynamics of development of the domestic confectionery is significantly lower than the Western one. However, if we compare the quality of in-line products, then even taking into account the trend of cheaper products, the products of our, Russian companies, can be called tasty and edible, which, alas, cannot be said about many European goods (let me emphasize, we are not talking about private confectionery shops yet).

Features of the Russian confectionery market are:

short term of realization of products;
the complexity of large-scale logistics and long-distance delivery;
a huge number of types and subspecies of products;
complete dependence of producers on the quality of raw materials from suppliers (ingredient products);
the tradition of consuming homemade cakes;
a wide selection of authentic, local raw materials for fillers (berries, fruits, nuts;
tight competition in the niche of inexpensive confectionery products and low competition in the segment of natural, high-quality, expensive products;
the prevalence of small businesses in the segment of fresh baked goods.

Now, as mentioned above, the Russian confectionery market is filled with low-quality cheap products, and finding a cake that is tasty, beautiful, and at the same time natural and safe for children's health is almost impossible.

On this dissonance, private traders survive who make cakes to order, small mini-bakeries, private pastry shops that work for 1-2 cafes or a couple of shops. Therefore, now the confectionery shop as a business is interesting and has a good prospect of income.

Experts comment on the market:

Alto Consulting Group in its study of the Russian confectionery market focuses on the constant and non-stop growth of piece goods turnover. Number of items. produced on the territory of the Russian Federation is growing, consumption too. However, compared to the increase in prices in 2013, the current market, despite major changes in the ratio of currencies, has remained virtually unchanged. The quality of the ingredients is reduced, due to this, the retail price of a confectionery product, instead of a natural increase, is kept at the same level.

And now let's take a closer look at the prices themselves, broken down by the federal districts of Russia:

This picture demonstrates a hypothesis stating that the reduction in quality and cost of production releases a niche for high-quality fresh baked goods and / or complex confectionery products with a short shelf life. This is exactly the segment in which small businesses can thrive. We have already considered how to open a pastry shop or pastry shop from scratch in one of the articles, so we will not dwell on this moment, but will limit ourselves to the statement that this business is now promising in a number of ways:

large manufacturers work for the shaft, so they strive to maintain maximum sales times, which cannot be achieved using exclusively natural ingredients;
the need for high-quality, natural and safe goods, especially in the segment of children's products, remains more and more unfulfilled;
The market requires great flexibility from manufacturers, the ability to follow fashion and capture changing taste preferences, which large factories and concerns cannot technically implement or do it very clumsily and for a long time.

Here is the proof of the change in the structure of demand, as you can see from the graph below, the growth in the production of cakes and pastries is not long-term storage

Rice. 2. The number of tons of products by types of confectionery products produced in Russia for the period 2010-2013. Dynamics of market development in unit equivalent.

How the confectionery business works: a description of business models and a brief market analysis

As in any other segment, in the confectionery business there are several models that are implemented for the purpose of making a profit:

Model 1: Manufacture and sale of own products through a network of branded stores and / or contractors (a striking example is the Krasny Oktyabr Confectionery Factory, Moscow). The advantage of this model is direct communication with the consumer, and the disadvantage is high economic risks.

Model 2: Manufacture of products under the order of contractors (this is how the Lironas Confectionery Company, the Volga region, works). Plus models in reduced costs for the sale of products. but the downside is. that the manufacturer actually cannot track the buyer's reaction to a change in the assortment portfolio, prices. quality and does so through focus groups and research. which is also not cheap.

Model 3: Manufacture of products and sale through franchised customers. In this case, the manufacturer sells his products in stores operating under his trademark, for example, the Medobory confectionery shop, Crimea. The advantage of the model is that there are practically no costs for sales promotion and the creation of a distribution network, and the disadvantage is that the company's reputation cannot be controlled (if any of the franchised clients behaves inappropriately with the buyer, the manufacturer's image suffers).

In other words, you need to separate two business processes:

production of confectionery products and their sale. There are companies that combine these two processes.
manufacturing and wholesale, or wholesale and retail. There are enterprises that use only one process in full, and the second - in a truncated one.

Among the largest Russian manufacturers can also be noted such as: confectionery factory KDV Yashkino (Kemerovo region), confectionery group of enterprises "Konti", JSC Lipetsk confectionery factory "Roshen", confectionery factory "Akkond" (Cheboksary), JSC "Craft Foods Rus" (Vladimir region), confectionery factory "Chipita" (St. Petersburg), confectionery factory "Galan" (Krasnodar Territory), OJSC "ROT FRONT" (Moscow).

Important points in the organization of the confectionery business are:

selection of a niche for production / sale of products (today the snack group is filled, and an acute shortage is observed in the region cream products short storage);
selection of a place and competent calculation of the turnover of a confectionery outlet;
choice of supplier.

It is on the choice of a supplier that I would like to focus attention. When a novice entrepreneur is about to plunge into the confectionery market, it is important for him to get a hot commodity. To do this, you need to understand what kind of products you would like to sell.

Confectionery products are products of daily demand: on average, each inhabitant of Russia in 2012 consumed 23 kg of sweets, of which 12 kg were sugary, and 11 kg were flour products. At the same time, about 18% of sweets are bought in Moscow.

Competition for confectionery market Russia is high. Today, the industry has about 1,500 organizations in all regions of the Russian Federation and more than 15,000 local confectioneries (Rosstat data). enterprises producing 55 percent of the total annual turnover of products.

The largest segments of confectionery products in the Russian market:

chocolates - 21%;
all types of cookies (including crackers) - 20%;
cream products (cakes, pastries) - 8%;
bar and figured chocolate - 8%.

In the period 2010 - 2014, according to Rosstat, the share of imports is constantly decreasing and before the introduction of the food embargo in August, it was 12.2%. Domestic production, respectively, is about 87.8%. The main suppliers of sugary confectionery products to Russia (sugar products include sweets, caramel, toffee and dragees):

For thirteen years (2000-2013), according to Rosstat indicators, the demand for raw materials such as sugar has been showing constant growth, and since sugar is an integral ingredient in confectionery, experts tend to see a direct relationship with an increase in demand for ready-made confectionery. The growth dynamics averages 5% annually. Those. we can say that every year the consumption of confectionery products in Russia increases by 5% (both in value and piece equivalent).

Experts believe that by 2017 the market volume will reach $4.5 billion.

Since confectionery products are not essential products, the demand for them is driven by tradition and external market influences.

The structure of food expenses of an average Russian family includes about 9.5 - 15% of the costs related to confectionery. With the size of the food basket of 1 Russian family (3 people) in the amount of 9.5 thousand rubles, an average of 1,500 rubles is spent on confectionery products per month. If this figure is attributed to the number of households in Russia (52,707 thousand), then we get the nominal market volume: 79 billion rubles per month.

Analysis of the seasonality of the confectionery business

Seasonal fluctuations in demand for confectionery products are an objective reality in all areas of the market. This factor has a significant impact on both sales volumes and their structure. Therefore, a comparative analysis in this industry is most adequately carried out by comparing the same periods of the reporting and last years, since adjacent periods can radically differ in terms of the level of turnover, the structure of sales, depending on the influence of holidays, fasting, the holiday season, the appearance of substitutes (berries, fruits), etc.

Below are the seasonality coefficients calculated on the basis of base December - as the month with the highest turnover in the confectionery industry, due to the pre-New Year mood of the consumer (see Figure 1, Diagram 1).

Tab. 1. The index of seasonality of the confectionery business, due to traditional holidays and climatic features.

				Impact on consumer activity
				New Year according to the old calendar


				Easter, parent's day
				the appearance of the first seasonal berries
				Great demand for berries, fruits

				holiday season in coastal and tourist regions
September				holiday season in coastal and tourist regions

				weather demand
				New Year, corporate holidays

Periods with approximately the same level of buyer activity are highlighted with one color scheme.

Thus, the 1st phase of seasonality (orange) is characterized by increased demand, due to the presence of holidays. In this phase, February is weak due to the short monthly period.

Seasonal phase 2 (blue) is characterized by a sharp decline in demand until July, which is associated with Lent, the appearance of cheaper substitutes, and the onset of a warm period. In April, there is a change in the structure of production: the sale of cream products by weight decreases, the sale of flour products (Kulich) increases, which affects the turnover. This phase is most in need of marketing stimulation and maintenance of sales volume.

July (yellow) is a transitional month from phase 2 to phase 3 (green), characterized by a gradual increase in trade turnover and, accordingly, output. According to the seasonality coefficient, it is comparable with the 4th phase (yellow) of consumer activity observed in October, November, where the opposite trend is observed - a decrease in trade turnover and output due to the outflow of tourists from recreational areas, the absence of traditional holidays until mid-December.

December (red) is the month with the highest turnover in the industry. These seasonal factors are average for the market as a whole.

Small business in the confectionery arena

The implementation of the confectionery business in the segment of private entrepreneurship is, as a rule, a cafe-confectionery. There are few options for implementing this format: a private trader can organize his own small production(confectionery shop for 100-300 kg per day) or purchase ready-made confectionery products from nearby suppliers.

Pluses own production is a direct contact with the consumer, the uniqueness of the offer and the ability to adapt the assortment to the needs of visitors. However, this is also the difficulty: in order to release a new type of product, the shop must develop technological maps and change the production scheme. These are time and financial costs.

When purchasing products from a large supplier (or several), the exclusivity of the product itself is lost, but the risk of unjustified costs for the creation of production lines is leveled. In addition, this scheme is more quickly paid back.

Therefore, opening a confectionery cafe should be started with a fundamental decision: we produce it ourselves or we buy finished products from a large manufacturer. If an entrepreneur nevertheless decides to start his own mini-workshop, then here you should take into account the costs of a technologist, shift confectioners, equipment and storage facilities where it will be stored as finished products, and blanks.

It is warehouse storage that is often not provided for by novice businessmen, which leads to enormous problems: products are light, but very voluminous and capricious. For example. to accommodate 20-25 standard cakes, you need a rack with shelves 1.5 * 1.5 m in a cool place with a sanitary permit. And if we are talking about baking, then the cornerstone is the wear resistance of the equipment, since you cannot prepare such products for use.

Benchmarketing: Successful Examples of Implementing a Small Confectionery Business

Foreign models:

Ukraine

An unexpectedly interesting confectionery operates in the small Ukrainian town of Melitopol. Despite the provincial nature of the city itself, the confectionery surprises with sophistication, competent products, wide coffee card and original recipes:

Coffee house-confectionery "Bourgeois", Melitopol - restaurant project. This is a full-fledged coffee shop with its own confectionery shop. Interesting and refined products, classic interior and at the same time low prices (average bill $10-12).

France

CAFÉ POUCHKINE, Paris - patisserie in the style of an 18th century French palace. Visitors can choose from cakes with cream, honey, berries, fruits, jam, macaroons, custom-made cakes from cream, sweets, powdered sugar. Average bill $5-25

BEVERAGES

FROM VODKA TO BEER AND BACK

Overview of the Russian market of alcoholic beverages

THE SWEET DURMAN SHOWED WHEN THE GARDENS FLOWED

Overview of the cider market

CITRO SPURLED OUT OF THE SILVER FAUCET WITH A NOISE

Overview of the Russian soft drinks market

Elite alcohol: how to attract the attention of buyers

TEA. COFFEE

BURNS THE SOUL, THE MIND ENLIGHTENS

Overview of the Russian tea market

CONFECTIONERY

New line - new opportunities
WHAT DO WE NEED? - CHOCOLATE!

MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS

OH, HOW MUCH WE HAVE EATED!

Overview of the Russian sausage market

Safely store and deliver to the buyer

DAIRY

NO MUCH YOU SAY "CHEESE"...

Overview of the Russian cheese market

IN CRISIS WITH A GLASS!

Overview of the Russian ice cream market

PACKAGE

LET'S FIND INTERNAL RESERVES!

Overview of the Russian market for packaging made of chrome-ersatz cardboard

GOTEK improves the quality of printing on corrugated board

CATERING

WHAT'S IN A NAME?

Franchising in the restaurant business

FINANCE AND CREDIT

SHAVING

Leasing market in Russia in the first half of 2015

EXHIBITIONS

24th International Exhibition WorldFood Moscow

NEW IN THE INDUSTRY

New

WHAT DO WE NEED? - CHOCOLATE!

Overview of the Russian confectionery market

Research by ID-Marketing
The confectionery market in Russia is provided mainly by domestic production. The market share of imported products is small, and it continues to decline due to the depreciation of the ruble and the sanctions policy. Market capacity in 2014 amounted to about 3.5 million tons of products, which is 2% higher than in 2013 (rice. 1 ) .
Since 2009, the production of confectionery products within the country has been characterized by annual increases in production volumes. Thus, according to the results of 2014, a record level of production over the past 10 years was recorded - 3.4 million tons of confectionery (rice. 2 ) .

In the first half of 2015, the trend continued, the indicator increased by 3.7% compared to the same period in 2014. At the same time, in the regions - leaders in the production of confectionery products, the Central and Volga Federal Districts, the indicators remained at the level of last year. The increase in production was achieved by increasing the volume of output by the enterprises of other districts. The largest increase in the indicator for the first half of 2015 was noted in the North Caucasus Federal District - 19%.
In the market structure, the ratio of production volumes between the main types of confectionery products in 2011–2014 remained almost unchanged. Almost half of production (47%) in January-June 2015 was cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery. The combined share of the production of gingerbread, gingerbread and similar products, as well as sweet biscuits and wafers was 42%. Flour products * , cakes and pastries of non-durable storage occupied 11%.
The output of flour confectionery, cocoa, chocolate and sugar products remained at the level of 2014. Biscuits, gingerbread and waffles, on the contrary, were produced by 9.5% more than in the same period last year.
According to Rosstat, the largest decline was recorded in the production chocolates containing alcohol, and chocolate products in the package. The production of caramel, on the contrary, increased by 10.1%, and other types of chocolates - by 15.3%.
More than half of all confectionery flour products, cakes and pastries of non-durable storage are produced in ten regions of the country. In terms of production, the Chelyabinsk region is the leader, the share of which in 2014 was 9.8% (rice. 3 ) .

Here are such major manufacturers as the Ural Confectioners Group of Companies, PTK Kolos LLC, Sladkiy Kondi LLC, Kremenkulskaya Confectionery LLC, Yuzhuralkonditer OJSC and others. In January-June 2015, production indicators in the region decreased by 17% compared to the same period in 2014. In 2014, the Krasnodar Territory followed in terms of volumes with a share of 8.8%. In the first half of 2015, the level of production of cakes and pastries in the Krasnodar Territory increased by 7.9%. In 2014, the Voronezh Region occupied the third place due to a more than twofold increase in the production of the products in question. In January-June 2015, output indicators in the region decreased by 24.4%. Moscow enterprises increased output by 10% in 2014, moving from third to fourth place compared to the same period in 2013. For the six months of 2015, the production rate in the capital increased by another 64.5%, while Moscow came in second place in terms of production. In general, according to the results of 2014, these four regions accounted for 30% of the products manufactured in the country.
Among the regions producing waffles, gingerbread and cookies, St. Petersburg is the leader, where in 2014 the output of these products increased by 16% (rice. 4 ) .

In January-June 2015, the increase was another 32.2%. In second place is the Kemerovo region, which also recorded an increase in indicators for the first half of 2015 - by 6.6%. In the Moscow region, which ranks third among the regions of Russia in terms of production of wafers, gingerbread and cookies, there is a rise in production levels by 24.7%.
More than one third of the production of cocoa, chocolate and confectionery sugar products in 2014 was provided by the volumes of three regions - Moscow, Moscow and Belgorod regions (rice. 5 ) .

In January-June 2015, in the Moscow region there was an increase in the indicator by 4.7%, while in Moscow and the Belgorod region, on the contrary, a decline was recorded, respectively, by 1 and 8.2%.
It is also worth noting a noticeable increase in the indicator of 2014 in the Rostov region - by 45% compared to the level of 2013. In January-June 2015, the trend continued – output volumes in the region increased by another 7.5%.
Import** of confectionery*** in 2014 amounted to 218.7 thousand tons, which is 30% lower than in 2013. In the overall structure of the market, the share of imports decreased from 9.3% to 6.3%. According to the results of 5 months of 2015, the import of confectionery products to the Russian Federation decreased by another 54% compared to the same period in 2014. At the same time, the decline mostly affected flour confectionery ****, the import of which (due to the ban on the supply of Ukrainian products) fell by almost 70% in January-May 2015 (rice. 6 ) .

More than half of imports in physical terms (51%) are chocolate and other cocoa products. This is explained by the fact that raw materials for the products of this segment are not produced domestically. In January-May 2015, the share of chocolate products changed insignificantly, decreasing to 48%. At the same time, the share of flour confectionery products has significantly decreased - from 21% in 2014 to 15% in 2015. Sugar confectionery (including white chocolate) containing no cocoa accounted for 28% of imports in 2014, and in January-May of this year, their share rose to 37%.
Despite the ban on the import of Ukrainian-made confectionery products to Russia on September 5, 2014, at the end of the year Ukraine remained the leader in the supply structure. (rice. 7 ) .

According to the results of 5 months of 2015, Germany came out on top in the ranking of importing countries. At the same time, 70% of German deliveries fall on chocolate and other cocoa products.
Export of confectionery products in 2014 amounted to 175.1 thousand tons, which is 5% less than the previous year. In 2015, for the first five months, the decline in sales of Russian confectionery products to foreign countries amounted to 10.5%. The sharp increase in exports of sugar confectionery (including chocolate) in October 2014 can be explained by a seasonal factor, as well as a decrease in sales in Ukraine.
The largest decline was recorded in the segment of sugar confectionery (including white chocolate) that does not contain cocoa (rice. 8 ) .

The main share of exports in this segment falls on Ukraine. As a result of the deterioration of relations with the nearest neighbor, sales of confectionery products to this country, following the results of 2014, decreased by half, and for 5 months of 2015 - by another 71% (rice. 9 ) .

More than half of Russian confectionery exports in 2014 were chocolate and other cocoa products. In January-May 2015, the structure of deliveries by type did not change significantly: one can note a decrease in the share of chocolate (up to 48%) due to the growth in export deliveries of flour confectionery products - from 23% in 2014 to 27% in January-May 2015. The share of exports of cocoa-free sugar confectionery (including chocolate) remained unchanged at 25%.
According to Rosstat, in 2014 the consumption of chocolate and chocolates in Russia reached 5.5 kilograms per person, which is 1.8% higher than in 2013. The consumption of flour confectionery products is also at a high level - in 2014 it amounted to 15.6 kilograms per year per capita, which is 1.3% higher than in the previous year. However, given the decline in consumer incomes, one should not expect an increase in the consumption of chocolate products, since the population prefers to save money on such food products during a crisis.
The category of chocolate and other cocoa products was most at risk of sales decline, as it is more dependent on imports.
In terms of imports of cocoa butter, Russia ranks seventh in the world. Since 2010, the volume of cocoa butter imports into the country has been growing year by year. In 2012, the growth was 15.8% compared to the previous year. According to the results of 2013, imports of cocoa butter increased by another 16.1%. However, according to the results of 2014, deliveries decreased by 8.2%.
The peak of imports of grated cocoa over the past 4 years falls on 2013. Last year, imports of these products decreased relative to the high base of 2013 - by 18.3%. Despite the fact that producers are trying to reduce the cost of production through the use of equivalents and substitutes for cocoa butter, their domestic production is still underdeveloped, and there is a dependence on imports.
The current situation in the confectionery market is characterized by a number of factors:
* rising prices for raw materials, including cocoa products, sugar, special fats and flour;
* shift in demand to the segment of cheaper products, economical packaging;
* market consolidation - in the face of increasing production costs and declining demand, the largest players remain on the market;
* rising prices for the industry's products;
* an increase in the share of Russian raw materials in the production of confectionery products (due to the imposed sanctions and the devaluation of the ruble).
Despite the recession in the Russian economy, the domestic confectionery market is in the top 5 largest world markets. At the same time, a number of investment projects continue to be implemented. Thus, in the Primorsky Territory, the Primorsky Confectioner company is implementing a project for a bakery plant and the production of confectionery products worth 3 billion rubles this year.
Increasing capacity and existing enterprises. For example, in July 2015, Mars launched a new dragee production line, which increased the capacity of the candy factory by 18%. Investments amounted to 3 billion rubles.
The Kursk confectionery factory "Konti-Rus" is preparing for commissioning a line for the production of biscuit rolls. Its cost is 180 million rubles, and the production capacity is 8.7 thousand tons of products per year. The line should start operating in the third quarter of 2015. In 2014, Conti announced plans to invest about 1 billion rubles in Kursk production.

* According to OKPD, the group "flour confectionery products, cakes and pastries of non-durable storage" includes cakes, pastries, oriental sweets and other flour confectionery products not included in other groups.

** Analysis without taking into account deliveries with the countries of the Customs Union - Kazakhstan and Belarus.

*** According to TNVED codes 1704 - sugar confectionery (including white chocolate), not containing cocoa, 1806 - chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa, 190520 - Gingerbread Cookie and similar articles, 190531 - sweet cracker, 190532 - wafers and wafer wafers.

**** According to TNVED codes 190520 - ginger biscuits and similar products, 190531 - sweet dry biscuits, 190532 - wafers and wafer wafers.

Ekaterina Novikova
research company
ID marketing