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The Russian market of cakes - current trends and directions of development. New trends in the confectionery industry

The Russian confectionery market has undergone major changes since 2013. To find out the prospects for its development, let's look at the factors that influence the choice of sweets and what Russian confectioners offer consumers today. We will analyze the market confectionery over the past 4 years and identify the main trends.

Confectionery are sweets that have a high nutritional value. They are beautifully decorated, have a pronounced taste. The composition of such products most often includes; sugar or its substitutes, fats, flour, stabilizers, dyes, starch, nuts, cocoa and other products.

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Confectionery products are divided into 3 groups:

chocolate: chocolate, bars, chocolates ;
sugary: sweets, caramel, marshmallows, marmalade, marshmallow, toffee, dragee;
flour: cookies, cakes, cakes, biscuits, waffles

Statistics show that on average a resident of Europe eats 6 kg of sweets per year. Russians are less likely to prefer sweet foods. According to expert estimates, in the period from 2014 to 2016, on average, one Russian had 4.5 kg of sweets per year. Until 2014, this figure was 5.1 kg.

An analysis of the confectionery market in Russia shows that the decline in demand is due to an increase in prices. In 2015, prices for raw materials increased, and confectioners raised their retail prices by an average of:

11% - sugary products;
15% - flour sweets;
26% - chocolate products.

Manufacturers of confectionery products in Russia have changed their approach to production during the crisis. To optimize costs and maintain sales levels, the following steps were taken:

the weight and size of packages and confectionery products has decreased;
new confectionery products appeared on the market. Instead of standard chocolate bars, they began to produce mini-formats.
confectionery manufacturers often position chocolates as a gift.

An analysis of the confectionery market in 2016 revealed that the demand for chocolate eggs with a toy is constantly growing. More and more companies are mastering this segment, and new confectionery products appeared on the shelves in 2016. Read more about the situation on the chocolate market.

An analysis of the flour confectionery market in Russia shows that until 2015 this market occupied one of the leading positions in terms of growth rates. A further decline in sales growth is due to a decrease in purchasing power. The exchange rate of the ruble fell, the incomes of the population decreased. The first item of savings among grocery products fell on confectionery. The decline in demand was felt more strongly by foreign manufacturers, because the price for their products increased several times. Buyers still choose sweets impulsively, but, as the analysis of the Russian confectionery market shows, they pay more attention to the price. Cost has become a key factor influencing the purchase decision.

Despite the time of crisis, parents are still ready to pamper their children by buying chocolate products with a toy for them. Most often, such confectionery products are made in the form of an egg, in which there is a container with a small toy. Market chocolate eggs with toys showed an increase of 8-10% until 2015. After 2015, the growth rate fell to 1.1%, and in 2016 it was only 0.3%.

Most of the population prefers eco-products. For example, chocolate without preservatives and with nuts as a filler. The Russian confectionery market responds to demand and adjusts the range of products.

Features of the confectionery market in Russia

The Russian confectionery market is characterized by a number of features:

a short period of sale of goods;
complex logistics due to long distances;
tradition home baking;
a large selection of Russian raw materials;
high competition among manufacturers of confectionery products in the low price segment;
low competition in the premium segment;
the main producers in the flour segment are small businesses.

Confectionery business in Russia

According to Nielsen Russia, sales in the confectionery market fell by 2.4% in 2016. In 2015, the market contraction was only 0.1%. The sharp decline is associated with a shock rise in prices that occurred in 2015. Most likely, the decline continued in 2016, but its pace slowed down. In 2016, prices rose by 9.4% against an 18.4% increase in 2015.

The demand for chocolate bars and loose biscuits — by 10.6% and 11%. Prices for chocolate bars have increased due to the increase in the cost of raw materials. By weight cookies belong to the low price segment, but are not very popular among Russians. Manufacturers maintain interest in their products by introducing new confectionery products to the market and holding promotions at points of sale. This made it possible to increase sales of biscuits in packs by 0.8%, wafers - by 0.6%, marshmallows and marshmallows - by 1.7%.

Confectionery manufacturers: industry leaders

"Red October". The company produces more than three hundred types of sweets;
Rot Front. The manufacturer supplies the market with about 50 thousand tons of sweets per year.
"Babaevsky". This confectionery concern produces more than 129 items.
"Russian chocolate". The manufacturer sells its products in Russia and in countries near and far abroad.
"Yasnaya Polyana". The plant is part of the Red October group.

Confectionery manufacturers from Moscow are leading in the chocolate segment

Import and export of confectionery products in 2017

The volume of imports of confectionery decreased by about half. Imports of the chocolate segment fell by 27.6%.

An overview of the confectionery market shows that export volumes have remained at the level of previous years. However, the profit in monetary terms decreased, which was caused by the weakening of the ruble. Exports are affected by rising prices for basic raw materials such as sugar, cocoa beans, additives and other ingredients. An increase in export volumes is observed in the segment flour products. It grew by 11.2% to 9.9 thousand tons in kind and by 4.1% in money terms. Showed growth chocolate products by 14.1% to 8.1 thousand tons and by 6.5% in monetary terms. The main export market for Russian confectionery products is China.

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New trends in confectionery production:

The premium segment of the confectionery market demonstrates stable performance. The novelties of the confectionery market are due to the attempts of manufacturers to clearly segment the target audience and maintain attention to their products. In recent years, confectionery novelties have appeared on the market.

chocolate with an unusual taste. The popularity of this type of chocolate came to Russia from Europe. On the shelves in supermarkets you can find chocolate bars with lime, pepper, salt and other flavors that are unusual for the consumer.
bitter chocolate. There is a growing demand for natural dark chocolate with a high percentage of cocoa beans. The increased interest is caused by the boom in a healthy lifestyle. Manufacturers emphasize that dark chocolate has high antioxidant properties and is able to prolong the life of body cells.
confectionery for the elderly. Manufacturers have identified a narrow target audience, which they offer products with a special composition.

Forecast for the development of the confectionery market in Russia for 2018

We should expect that the confectionery market in Russia in 2017, despite the decline in sales, will show growth. It is driven by an increase in exports. However, according to the forecast of the Center for Confectionery Market Research, a decline in demand for products such as marshmallows, biscuits, marshmallows is possible. Today, the demand for the chocolate segment continues to fall, but consumer interest in products from this category is expected to increase soon.

The growth of the chocolate segment at the level of 1% per year until 2020 is possible due to the improvement of the economy as a whole. Sharp jumps in product prices are not expected. Manufacturers find new ways to attract customers: they develop an optimal pricing policy, bring new products to the market and package them in original packaging. This is good news for the confectionery market.

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I want to note the serious changes in the Russian confectionery market, which have affected me, my family, and have not passed by each of you and your loved ones. These changes open up new opportunities, and it is precisely today that the confectionery store as a business is promising and timely. What are these changes, why a small business in the confectionery industry gets new chances for development, we will understand in a detailed article.

Story confectionery business has more than 20 centuries. The first merchants of sweets arrived in the territory of modern Europe from the east as early as the 6th-5th century BC. Primitive lollipops, simple pastries, cottage cheese and sugar baklava were on the tables of the ancient nobility. In the Middle Ages, spices were brought to Europe from India and chocolate from South America. It was a revolutionary moment in the history of the confectionery business.

In France, coffee shops and chocolate shops were opened, in England, scones (a kind of cupcakes), popular to this day, appeared. Russian pretzels and pies also aroused interest abroad. However, it was not until the end of the 18th century that cultural traditions, different confectionery techniques, textures and completely different ingredients could be combined, and the next century is considered the birth of world confectionery cooking. France is considered to be its homeland. But there is another, no less popular direction. confectionery art¬- east.

It is difficult to compare French desserts and oriental delights, baklava and Saint Honoré, Turkish delight and Tiramisu. However, oriental techniques for making sweets have about 40% of fans all over the world, so you can’t ignore them.

Consumer demand for sweets has been at a high level for almost 300 years. Moreover, the change in market conditions is obvious: if back in the 1920s gingerbread and cakes were bought as a festive attribute, now the culture of consumption of sweets brings sweet dishes into everyday consumption.

We regularly see pastry shops and coffee houses on the streets, offering a wide range of complex and simple sweets. Strudels, cheesecakes, brownies, muffins, cupcakes are waiting for us at gas stations, in the halls of business centers, in parks and theater buffets, in street stalls and even McDonald's. Confectionery products from the group of elite privileged products have moved into the category of fast food.

But even this serious market change is not the root cause for a new round of development in the small business segment. The fact that cakes and pastries have become the usual affordable “fast food” for every day has led to their reduction in price at the expense of quality. Instead of butter confectioners use spreads instead of vegetable fats- animal or synthetic, etc. This makes the cost of the product lower, which allows you to survive in the competition.

The main features of the confectionery market in Russia

The Russian confectionery environment, thanks to the fundamental school of the Soviet Union, has a good quality theoretical and practical base. However, due to the closeness of Soviet policy, a moment of flexibility was lost. Now the dynamics of development of the domestic confectionery is significantly lower than the Western one. However, if we compare the quality of in-line products, then even taking into account the trend of cheaper products, the products of our, Russian companies, can be called tasty and edible, which, alas, cannot be said about many European goods (I emphasize that we are not talking about private confectionery shops yet).

Features of the Russian confectionery market are:

short term of realization of products;
the complexity of large-scale logistics and long-distance delivery;
a huge number of types and subspecies of products;
complete dependence of producers on the quality of raw materials from suppliers (ingredient products);
the tradition of consuming homemade cakes;
a wide selection of authentic, local raw materials for fillers (berries, fruits, nuts;
tight competition in the niche of inexpensive confectionery products and low competition in the segment of natural, high-quality, expensive products;
the prevalence of small businesses in the segment of fresh baked goods.

Now, as mentioned above, the Russian confectionery market is filled with low-quality cheap products, and finding a cake that is tasty, beautiful, and at the same time natural and safe for children's health is almost impossible.

On this dissonance, private traders survive who make cakes to order, small mini-bakeries, private pastry shops that work for 1-2 cafes or a couple of shops. Therefore, now the confectionery shop as a business is interesting and has a good prospect of income.

Experts comment on the market:

Alto Consulting Group in its study of the Russian confectionery market focuses on the constant and non-stop growth of piece goods turnover. Number of items. produced on the territory of the Russian Federation is growing, consumption too. However, compared to the increase in prices in 2013, the current market, despite major changes in the ratio of currencies, has remained virtually unchanged. The quality of the ingredients is reduced, due to this, the retail price of a confectionery product, instead of a natural increase, is kept at the same level.

And now let's take a closer look at the prices themselves, broken down by the federal districts of Russia:

This picture demonstrates a hypothesis stating that the reduction in quality and cost of production releases a niche for high-quality fresh baked goods and / or complex confectionery products with a short shelf life. This is exactly the segment in which small businesses can thrive. We have already considered how to open a pastry shop or a pastry shop from scratch in one of the articles, so we will not dwell on this moment, but will limit ourselves to the statement that this business is now promising in a number of ways:

large manufacturers work for the shaft, so they strive to maintain maximum sales times, which cannot be achieved using exclusively natural ingredients;
the need for high-quality, natural and safe goods, especially in the segment of children's products, remains more and more unfulfilled;
The market requires great flexibility from manufacturers, the ability to follow fashion and capture changing taste preferences, which large factories and concerns cannot technically implement or do it very clumsily and for a long time.

Here is the proof of the change in the structure of demand, as can be seen from the graph below, the growth in the production of cakes and pastries did not long-term storage

Rice. 2. The number of tons of products by types of confectionery products produced in Russia for the period 2010-2013. Dynamics of market development in unit equivalent.

How the confectionery business works: a description of business models and a brief market analysis

As in any other segment, in the confectionery business there are several models that are implemented for the purpose of making a profit:

Model 1: Manufacture and sale of own products through a network of branded stores and / or contractors (a striking example is the Krasny Oktyabr Confectionery Factory, Moscow). The advantage of this model is direct communication with the consumer, and the disadvantage is high economic risks.

Model 2: Manufacture of products under the order of contractors (this is how the Lironas Confectionery Company, the Volga region, works). Plus models in reduced costs for the sale of products. but the downside is. that the manufacturer actually cannot track the buyer's reaction to a change in the assortment portfolio, prices. quality and does so through focus groups and research. which is also not cheap.

Model 3: Manufacture of products and sale through franchised customers. In this case, the manufacturer sells his products in stores operating under his trademark, for example, the Medobory confectionery shop, Crimea. The advantage of the model is that there are practically no costs for sales promotion and the creation of a distribution network, and the disadvantage is that the company's reputation cannot be controlled (if any of the franchised clients behaves inappropriately with the buyer, the manufacturer's image suffers).

In other words, you need to separate two business processes:

production of confectionery products and their sale. There are companies that combine these two processes.
manufacturing and wholesale, or wholesale and retail. There are enterprises that use only one process in full, and the second - in a truncated one.

Among the largest Russian manufacturers, one can also note the following: confectionery factory KDV Yashkino (Kemerovo region), confectionery group of enterprises "Konti", OJSC Lipetsk confectionery factory "Roshen", confectionery factory "Akkond" (Cheboksary), OJSC "Craft Foods Rus" (Vladimir region), Chipita confectionery factory (St. Petersburg), Galan confectionery factory (Krasnodar Territory), ROT FRONT OJSC (Moscow).

Important points in the organization of the confectionery business are:

selection of a niche for the production / sale of products (today the snack group is filled, and an acute shortage is observed in the field of short-term storage cream products);
selection of a place and competent calculation of the turnover of a confectionery outlet;
choice of supplier.

It is on the choice of a supplier that I would like to focus attention. When a novice entrepreneur is about to plunge into the confectionery market, it is important for him to get a hot commodity. To do this, you need to understand what kind of products you would like to sell.

Confectionery products are products of daily demand: on average, each resident of Russia in 2012 consumed 23 kg of sweets, of which 12 kg were sugary, and 11 kg were flour products. At the same time, about 18% of sweets are bought in Moscow.

Competition in the Russian confectionery market is high. Today, the industry has about 1,500 organizations in all regions of the Russian Federation and more than 15,000 local confectioneries (Rosstat data). enterprises producing 55 percent of the total annual turnover of products.

The largest segments of confectionery products in the Russian market:

chocolates - 21%;
all types of cookies (including crackers) - 20%;
cream products (cakes, pastries) - 8%;
bar and figured chocolate - 8%.

In the period 2010 - 2014, according to Rosstat, the share of imports is constantly decreasing and before the introduction of the food embargo in August, it was 12.2%. Domestic production, respectively, is about 87.8%. The main suppliers of sugary confectionery products to Russia (sugar products include sweets, caramel, toffee and dragees):

For thirteen years (2000-2013), according to Rosstat indicators, the demand for raw materials such as sugar has been steadily growing, and since sugar is an integral ingredient in confectionery, experts tend to see a direct relationship with an increase in demand for ready-made confectionery. The growth dynamics averages 5% annually. Those. we can say that every year the consumption of confectionery products in Russia increases by 5% (both in value and piece equivalent).

Experts believe that by 2017 the market volume will reach $4.5 billion.

Since confectionery products are not essential products, the demand for them is driven by tradition and external market influences.

The structure of food expenses of an average Russian family includes about 9.5 - 15% of the costs related to confectionery. With the size of the food basket of 1 Russian family (3 people) in the amount of 9.5 thousand rubles, an average of 1,500 rubles is spent on confectionery products per month. If this figure is attributed to the number of households in Russia (52,707 thousand), then we get the nominal market volume: 79 billion rubles per month.

Analysis of the seasonality of the confectionery business

Seasonal fluctuations in demand for confectionery products are an objective reality in all areas of the market. This factor has a significant impact on both sales volumes and their structure. Therefore, a comparative analysis in this industry is most adequately carried out by comparing the same periods of the reporting and last years, since adjacent periods can radically differ in terms of the level of turnover, the structure of sales, depending on the influence of holidays, fasting, the holiday season, the appearance of substitutes (berries, fruits), etc.

Below are the seasonality coefficients calculated on the basis of base December - as the month with the highest turnover in the confectionery industry, due to the pre-New Year mood of the consumer (see Figure 1, Diagram 1).

Tab. 1. The index of seasonality of the confectionery business, due to traditional holidays and climatic features.

				Impact on consumer activity
				New Year according to the old calendar


				Easter, parent's day
				the appearance of the first seasonal berries
				Great demand for berries, fruits

				holiday season in coastal and tourist regions
September				holiday season in coastal and tourist regions

				weather demand
				New Year, corporate holidays

Periods with approximately the same level of buyer activity are highlighted with one color scheme.

Thus, the 1st phase of seasonality (orange) is characterized by increased demand, due to the presence of holidays. In this phase, February is weak due to the short monthly period.

Seasonal phase 2 (blue) is characterized by a sharp decline in demand until July, which is associated with Lent, the appearance of cheaper substitutes, and the onset of a warm period. In April, there is a change in the structure of production: the sale of cream products by weight decreases, the sale of flour products (Kulich) increases, which affects the turnover. This phase is most in need of marketing stimulation and maintenance of sales volume.

July (yellow) is a transitional month from phase 2 to phase 3 (green), characterized by a gradual increase in trade turnover and, accordingly, output. According to the seasonality coefficient, it is comparable with the 4th phase (yellow) of consumer activity observed in October, November, where the reverse trend is observed - a decrease in trade turnover and output due to the outflow of tourists from recreational areas, the absence of traditional public holidays until mid-December.

December (red) is the month with the highest turnover in the industry. These seasonal factors are average for the market as a whole.

Small business in the confectionery arena

The implementation of the confectionery business in the segment of private entrepreneurship is, as a rule, a cafe-confectionery. There are few options for implementing this format: a private trader can organize his own small production (confectionery shop for 100-300 kg per day) or purchase finished confectionery products from nearby suppliers.

Pluses own production is a direct contact with the consumer, the uniqueness of the offer and the ability to adapt the assortment to the needs of visitors. However, this is also the difficulty: in order to release a new type of product, the workshop must develop technological maps and change the production pattern. These are time and financial costs.

When purchasing products from a large supplier (or several), the exclusivity of the product itself is lost, but the risk of unjustified costs for the creation of production lines is leveled. In addition, this scheme is more quickly paid back.

Therefore, opening a cafe-confectionery should be started with a fundamental decision: we produce it ourselves or we buy finished products from a large manufacturer. If an entrepreneur nevertheless decides to start his own mini-workshop, then here you should take into account the costs of a technologist, shift confectioners, equipment and storage facilities where it will be stored as finished products, and blanks.

It is warehouse storage that is often not provided for by novice businessmen, which leads to enormous problems: products are light, but very voluminous and capricious. For example. to accommodate 20-25 standard cakes, you need a rack with shelves 1.5 * 1.5 m in a cool place with a sanitary permit. And if we are talking about baking, then the cornerstone is the wear resistance of the equipment, since you cannot prepare such products for use.

Benchmarketing: Successful Examples of Implementing a Small Confectionery Business

Foreign models:

Ukraine

An unexpectedly interesting confectionery operates in the small Ukrainian town of Melitopol. Despite the provinciality of the city itself, the confectionery surprises with sophistication, competent products, a wide coffee list and author's recipes:

Coffee house-confectionery "Bourgeois", Melitopol - restaurant project. This is a full-fledged coffee shop with its own confectionery shop. Interesting and refined products, classic interior and at the same time low prices (average bill $10-12).

France

Confectionery CAFÉ POUCHKINE, Paris - patisserie in the style of an 18th century French palace. Visitors can choose from cakes with cream, honey, berries, fruits, jam, macaroons, custom-made cakes from cream, sweets, powdered sugar. Average bill $5-25

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Overview of the Russian confectionery market

Research by ID-Marketing
The confectionery market in Russia is provided mainly by domestic production. The market share of imported products is small, and it continues to decline due to the depreciation of the ruble and the sanctions policy. Market capacity in 2014 amounted to about 3.5 million tons of products, which is 2% higher than in 2013 (rice. 1 ) .
Since 2009, the production of confectionery products within the country has been characterized by annual increases in production volumes. Thus, according to the results of 2014, a record level of production over the past 10 years was recorded - 3.4 million tons of confectionery (rice. 2 ) .

In the first half of 2015, the trend continued, the indicator increased by 3.7% compared to the same period in 2014. At the same time, in the regions - leaders in the production of confectionery products, the Central and Volga Federal Districts, the indicators remained at the level of last year. The increase in production was achieved by increasing the volume of output by enterprises of other districts. The largest increase in the indicator for the first half of 2015 was noted in the North Caucasus Federal District - 19%.
In the market structure, the ratio of production volumes between the main types of confectionery products in 2011–2014 remained almost unchanged. Almost half of production (47%) in January-June 2015 was cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery. The combined share of the production of gingerbread, gingerbread and similar products, as well as sweet biscuits and wafers was 42%. Flour products * , cakes and pastries of non-durable storage occupied 11%.
The output of flour confectionery, cocoa, chocolate and sugar products remained at the level of 2014. Biscuits, gingerbread and waffles, on the contrary, were produced by 9.5% more than in the same period last year.
According to Rosstat, the largest decline was recorded in the production chocolates containing alcohol, and chocolate products in the package. The production of caramel, on the contrary, increased by 10.1%, and other types of chocolates - by 15.3%.
More than half of all confectionery flour products, cakes and pastries of non-durable storage are produced in ten regions of the country. In terms of production, the Chelyabinsk region is the leader, the share of which in 2014 was 9.8% (rice. 3 ) .

Here are located such major manufacturers as the Ural Confectioners Group of Companies, PTK Kolos LLC, Sladkiy Kondi LLC, Kremenkulskaya Confectionery LLC, Yuzhuralkonditer OJSC and others. In January-June 2015, production indicators in the region decreased by 17% compared to the same period in 2014. In 2014, the Krasnodar Territory followed in terms of volumes with a share of 8.8%. In the first half of 2015, the level of production of cakes and pastries in the Krasnodar Territory increased by 7.9%. In 2014, the Voronezh Region occupied the third place due to a more than twofold increase in the production of the products in question. In January-June 2015, output indicators in the region decreased by 24.4%. Moscow enterprises increased output by 10% in 2014, moving from third to fourth place compared to the same period in 2013. For the six months of 2015, the production rate in the capital increased by another 64.5%, while Moscow came in second place in terms of production. In general, according to the results of 2014, these four regions accounted for 30% of the products manufactured in the country.
Among the regions producing waffles, gingerbread and cookies, St. Petersburg is the leader, where in 2014 the output of these products increased by 16% (rice. 4 ) .

In January-June 2015, the increase was another 32.2%. In second place is the Kemerovo region, which also recorded an increase in indicators for the first half of 2015 - by 6.6%. In the Moscow region, which ranks third among the regions of Russia in terms of output of wafers, gingerbread and cookies, there is a rise in production levels by 24.7%.
More than one third of the production of cocoa, chocolate and confectionery sugar products in 2014 was provided by the volumes of three regions - Moscow, Moscow and Belgorod regions (rice. 5 ) .

In January-June 2015, in the Moscow region there was an increase of 4.7%, while in Moscow and the Belgorod region, on the contrary, a decline was recorded, respectively, by 1 and 8.2%.
It is also worth noting a noticeable increase in the indicator of 2014 in the Rostov region - by 45% compared to the level of 2013. In January-June 2015, the trend continued – output volumes in the region increased by another 7.5%.
Import** of confectionery*** in 2014 amounted to 218.7 thousand tons, which is 30% lower than in 2013. In the overall structure of the market, the share of imports decreased from 9.3% to 6.3%. According to the results of 5 months of 2015, the import of confectionery products to the Russian Federation decreased by another 54% compared to the same period in 2014. At the same time, the decline mostly affected flour confectionery ****, the import of which (due to the ban on the supply of Ukrainian products) fell by almost 70% in January-May 2015 (rice. 6 ) .

More than half of imports in physical terms (51%) are chocolate and other cocoa products. This is explained by the fact that raw materials for the products of this segment are not produced domestically. In January-May 2015, the share of chocolate products changed insignificantly, decreasing to 48%. At the same time, the share of flour confectionery products has significantly decreased - from 21% in 2014 to 15% in 2015. For sugar confectionery (including White chocolate), not containing cocoa, in 2014 accounted for 28% of imports, and in January-May of this year, their share increased to 37%.
Despite the ban on the import of Ukrainian-made confectionery products to Russia on September 5, 2014, at the end of the year Ukraine remained the leader in the supply structure. (rice. 7 ) .

According to the results of 5 months of 2015, Germany came out on top in the ranking of importing countries. At the same time, 70% of German deliveries fall on chocolate and other cocoa products.
Export of confectionery products in 2014 amounted to 175.1 thousand tons, which is 5% less than the previous year. In 2015, for the first five months, the decline in sales of Russian confectionery products to foreign countries amounted to 10.5%. The sharp increase in exports of sugar confectionery (including chocolate) in October 2014 can be explained by a seasonal factor, as well as a decrease in sales in Ukraine.
The largest decline was recorded in the segment of sugar confectionery (including white chocolate) that does not contain cocoa (rice. 8 ) .

The main share of exports in this segment falls on Ukraine. As a result of the deterioration of relations with the nearest neighbor, sales of confectionery products to this country, following the results of 2014, decreased by half, and for 5 months of 2015 - by another 71% (rice. 9 ) .

More than half of Russian confectionery exports in 2014 were chocolate and other cocoa products. In January-May 2015, the structure of deliveries by type did not change significantly: one can note a decrease in the share of chocolate (up to 48%) due to the growth in export deliveries of flour confectionery products - from 23% in 2014 to 27% in January-May 2015. The share of exports of cocoa-free sugar confectionery (including chocolate) remained unchanged at 25%.
According to Rosstat, in 2014 the consumption of chocolate and chocolates in Russia reached 5.5 kilograms per person, which is 1.8% higher than in 2013. The consumption of flour confectionery products is also at a high level - in 2014 it amounted to 15.6 kilograms per year per capita, which is 1.3% higher than in the previous year. However, given the decline in consumer incomes, one should not expect an increase in the consumption of chocolate products, since the population prefers to save money on such food products during a crisis.
The category of chocolate and other cocoa products was most at risk of sales decline, as it is more dependent on imports.
In terms of imports of cocoa butter, Russia ranks seventh in the world. Since 2010, the volume of cocoa butter imports into the country has been growing year by year. In 2012, the growth was 15.8% compared to the previous year. According to the results of 2013, imports of cocoa butter increased by another 16.1%. However, according to the results of 2014, deliveries decreased by 8.2%.
The peak of imports of grated cocoa over the past 4 years falls on 2013. Last year, imports of these products decreased relative to the high base of 2013 - by 18.3%. Despite the fact that producers are trying to reduce the cost of production through the use of equivalents and substitutes for cocoa butter, their domestic production is still underdeveloped, and there is a dependence on imports.
The current situation in the confectionery market is characterized by a number of factors:
* rising prices for raw materials, including cocoa products, sugar, special fats and flour;
* shift in demand to the segment of cheaper products, economical packaging;
* market consolidation - in the face of increasing production costs and declining demand, the largest players remain on the market;
* rising prices for the industry's products;
* an increase in the share of Russian raw materials in the production of confectionery products (due to the imposed sanctions and the devaluation of the ruble).
Despite the recession in the Russian economy, the domestic confectionery market is in the top 5 largest world markets. At the same time, a number of investment projects continue to be implemented. Thus, in the Primorsky Territory, the Primorsky Confectioner company is implementing a project for a bakery plant and the production of confectionery products worth 3 billion rubles this year.
Increasing capacity and existing enterprises. For example, in July 2015, Mars launched a new dragee production line, which increased the capacity of the candy factory by 18%. Investments amounted to 3 billion rubles.
The Kursk confectionery factory "Konti-Rus" is preparing for commissioning a line for the production of biscuit rolls. Its cost is 180 million rubles, and productive capacity– 8.7 thousand tons of products per year. The line should start operating in the third quarter of 2015. In 2014, Conti announced plans to invest about 1 billion rubles in Kursk production.

* According to OKPD, the group "flour confectionery products, cakes and pastries of non-durable storage" includes cakes, pastries, oriental sweets and other flour confectionery products not included in other groups.

** Analysis without taking into account deliveries with the countries of the Customs Union - Kazakhstan and Belarus.

*** According to TNVED codes 1704 - sugar confectionery (including white chocolate), not containing cocoa, 1806 - chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa 190520 - Gingerbread cookies and similar products 190531 - Sweet cracker, 190532 - wafers and wafer wafers.

**** According to TNVED codes 190520 - ginger biscuits and similar products, 190531 - sweet dry biscuits, 190532 - wafers and wafer wafers.

Ekaterina Novikova
research company
ID marketing

Until 2015, the Russian confectionery market was one of the most actively developing segments of the consumer sector of the economy. Recently, however, the share of lovers of sweets began to fall sharply. The consumption of imported confectionery, primarily chocolate and flour products, decreased the most. According to a study of the bakery and confectionery market conducted in September 2016, compared to 2013, the share of buyers of cream products in Moscow decreased by 19 p.p., and the share of buyers of small-piece confectionery products (cookies, dried gingerbread) - by 5 p.p. .P. (Fig. 1)

Picture 1. Purchase of confectionery products in 2013 and 2016, % of respondents

Why is this happening?

The first reason that lies on the surface is the reduction in consumer spending of Russians due to the weakening of the ruble, the reduction in household incomes and rising consumer prices. Thus, according to the Center for Research on the Confectionery Market, in 2015, prices for confectionery products increased by an average of 24% in Russia as a whole.

The second trend, which, according to market experts, affects consumer activity, is the desire of an increasing number of Russians to bake bakery products on their own. In this regard, there was an increased demand for the purchase of ingredients for baking.

The desire of consumers to lead a healthy lifestyle, and manufacturers - not to lose their customers leads to a change in the positioning of confectionery and bakery products. The most common statements that accompany New Product on the global market, the following: “no additives and / or preservatives”, “low and / or free of allergens”, “whole grain”, “gluten free” and others. On the Russian market, there are such statements as “supporting a healthy condition and heart function”, “easy to use”, “eco-friendly packaging”, “to normalize digestion”, “for weight loss”, “non-GMO”, “enriched with protein” and others .

Also, more and more often specialized (for a specific group of people) bakery and confectionery products appear on the shelves of Russian stores and are in demand, for example, for pensioners or people with a certain type of disease.

Sweet satiety will not soon be full

As noted above, compared with 2013, the share of buyers of small-piece products decreased from 57% to 52%. It is important to note that the vast majority of Muscovites surveyed are still more likely to buy small-piece confectionery products in packages, rather than by weight. Women and youth continue to be more active buyers of these products. Also, women are generally more aware of confectionery manufacturers than men.

If we talk about the preferences of Muscovites in terms of types of confectionery, cookies, as in 2013, remain the most purchased in the capital - they are chosen by 76% of the surveyed buyers of "small things" (Fig. 2). It should be noted that for many types of confectionery there is a decrease in the share of buyers. Thus, Muscovites are less in demand for dried bread and bagels (-8 p.p.), marshmallows (-5 p.p.) and oriental sweets (-7 p.p.).

Figure 2. Preferences by types of small-piece confectionery products, % of the number of buyers

What's with what? It is possible to single out separate groups of small-piece confectionery products, the purchase of which is typical for the same consumers. For example, most often they buy marshmallows, marmalade and marshmallows together. Gingerbread cookies are purchased together with cookies, waffles and muffins. If Muscovites buy dryers, bagels, then there is a high probability that they will also buy sweet crackers. Oriental sweets are purchased by those who love cookies and waffle cakes. The results obtained indicate the interchangeability of certain small-piece confectionery products included in one group, which in particular can manifest itself in a situation of joint purchase of specific types of products, as well as an alternative to others.

As for the places to buy confectionery, the following picture is observed here: supermarkets and hypermarkets are becoming an increasingly popular place to buy sweets. In 2013, 57% of the surveyed Muscovites purchased “small things” there for themselves and their families, today this share has grown to 69%. At the same time, there is a decrease in the share of buyers of confectionery products in convenience stores: 18% against 34% in 2013 (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Places of purchases of small-piece confectionery products, % of small-piece buyers

If we talk about the level of expenses of Muscovites for one purchase of small-piece confectionery, then, according to data for 2016, 66% of respondents spend no more than 300 rubles at a time, which is comparable to the data of a study conducted in 2013.

It is also interesting that over the past 3 years the level of confidence of Muscovites in Russian manufacturers confectionery products (from 52% in 2013 to 63% in 2016). Moreover, this happened not due to an increase in distrust towards foreign manufacturers, but due to a decrease in the proportion of those who answered “it's hard to say, it depends on the specific brand”.

If they don't have bread, let them eat cake!

The share of buyers of cream confectionery products has significantly decreased compared to 2013. However, this had little effect on the frequency of buying cakes and pastries, on the contrary, the share of those who bought pastries several times a week increased by 6 p.p. and at the time of the survey was 12%.

The main place to purchase cream products, as well as “small things”, is retail chains - it is chosen by 62% of buyers of cream products. Manufacturers' branded stores are less popular, where 16% of the respondents buy these products, and no more than 7% of respondents buy them in specialized confectionery stores and bakeries.

Consumers of cakes began to purchase products that are lighter in weight: 45% of the Muscovites surveyed weighed less than a kilogram of their last purchase, while in 2013 the share of such purchases was 34%. The reason for this decline can be explained, at least, by the fact that cream cakes, which have the smallest volume, require more significant costs from buyers.

Figure 4 Weight of last purchase cream cake, % of buyers of cream products

At the same time, the cost of the average purchase of cakes increased significantly compared to 2013 (by 23%) and amounted to 611 rubles. As for cakes, on average, Muscovites spent 241 rubles on the last purchase of this product.

The most recognizable and bought products in Moscow are products manufactured under the U Palycha brand (Company M LLC, Samara), - 91% of buyers of cream products know this brand, and 55% have purchased it over the past 6 months. The products of KF Oktyabr LLC (Moscow region) and Fili-Baker LLC (Moscow) are also highly recognizable - they are chosen by 74 and 67% of respondents, respectively (Figure 5).

Figure 5 The fame of manufacturers of cream confectionery. TOP-10, % of buyers of cream products

Existing trends in the consumer market, namely: rising prices, lower consumer spending and incomes, focus on healthy and wholesome products, have affected the purchasing preferences of Muscovites and have had a negative impact on the confectionery and bakery market as a whole. But, despite some negative wave, such an atmosphere always leads to new discoveries, expanding the range, improving product quality.

The study was conducted by telephone survey among Muscovites aged 18 to 60 who buy bakery and confectionery products in May-June 2013, 938 people were interviewed, in September 2016 - 1205 people.

In 2017, the volume of consumption of confectionery products amounted to 3,496.3 thousand tons, which is 4% higher than in 2016. The positive dynamics is not associated with a significant reduction in the cost of raw materials needed for the manufacture of products, as a result of which manufacturers managed to improve and expand their range in accordance with new consumer preferences (bitter chocolate, low-calorie products, unusual confectionery fillings, etc.). Basically, the dynamics of the market is significantly affected by the segment of chocolate and chocolate products, which occupies 50% of its volume.

According to a study by websitessia, the Russian market consists of 93.1% of domestic products. About 11.5% of the total volume of manufactured products was exported in 2017, mainly to Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Apparent confectionery consumption

In 2014-2015 against the backdrop of a reduction in real incomes, the population switched to a savings model of consumption, there was a reorientation of demand for cheaper food products, including economy-segment sweets. Chocolate and chocolate products, which are the most popular types of confectionery, have been replaced by cheaper confectionery products that do not contain cocoa, and flour confectionery products with a long shelf life (cookies, waffles, gingerbread, etc.).

According to the results in 2016, the market volume increased by 1.7% to 3,317.6 thousand tons. In 2017, the volume of consumption of confectionery products amounted to 3,372.8 thousand tons, which is another 4.8% higher than the level of the previous year.

In value terms, the market showed stable growth during the period under review. In 2015-2017 market growth accelerated and reached a peak volume of RUB 1,372.1 billion. in 2017 against the background of a significant increase in prices for confectionery products.

Currently, despite the lack of growth in real incomes of the population, there is an increase in demand for high-quality products in the middle and premium segments. This is due to the fact that the growing popularity of proper nutrition and a healthy lifestyle increases the demand for sugar-free chocolate and dark chocolate with a cocoa content of more than 85%, gluten-free desserts, products made from unrefined flour.

It is assumed that in the medium term, the growth in consumption of confectionery products in the Russian Federation will average about 1% annually due to the adaptation of producers and consumers to the current economic situation.

The volume of aggregate supply in the confectionery market in 2013-2018(O) and forecast for 2019-2025, thousand tons (under the base development scenario)

The structure of the confectionery market: production, export, import, consumption

The bulk of the Russian confectionery market is formed mainly by Russian-made products, which currently account for 92.6%.

Until 2014, the share of imported confectionery on the market was 12%. However, in 2014-2015 its share decreased to 5.6% due to a significant increase in the cost of foreign products due to the depreciation of the ruble, an increase in prices for confectionery raw materials (sugar, flour, cocoa products, fats) and a reorientation of the consumer to cheaper domestic products.

After declining in 2015, exports of confectionery products show rapid growth in 2016-2017, driven by increased activity of producers and exporters, development of trade in new directions, and the opening up of the Chinese market for domestic producers. Belarus and Kazakhstan traditionally stand out among the importing countries (about 40% of all export deliveries), and over the past few years, China has taken the lead.

Russian manufacturers are expanding their product range and developing new segments, adjusting to the changing interests of consumers. Export volumes are expected to continue to increase in the medium term.

Dynamics and structure of the confectionery market in 2013-2018(O) and forecast up to 2025, thousand tons (under the base development scenario)

Structure of consumption by federal districts

In 2016, the largest share in the structure of consumption was occupied by the Central and Volga Federal Districts (26.7% and 19.9%, respectively). This is followed by the Siberian Federal District with a share of 13.2% and the Southern Federal District with a share of 11.2%. The current structure is formed largely due to the needs of the Central and Volga Federal Districts, population growth and solvent demand.

At the end of 2017, there were no significant changes in the structure of consumption of confectionery products: the Central and Volga Federal Districts remain the leaders (26.7% and 20.2%, respectively).

Structure of consumption of confectionery products by federal districts in 2013-2018(O)

Confectionery Market: Development Forecast

In the medium term, the confectionery market will not suffer major changes and will show stable growth at the level of 1-2% annually, which is due to continued recovery processes. Due to this, in 2018, consumption is expected in the amount of 3,597.9 thousand tons.

The development of the market will primarily be determined by the real incomes of the population, which affect the level of demand from the end consumer, as well as the prices for raw cocoa and the policy of the Russian Federation regarding the import of raw materials needed for the production of confectionery.