EntranceThe main producers in the confectionery market. Analysis of the domestic market of flour confectionery products
Federal State Educational Budgetary Institution
higher professional education
FINANCIAL UNIVERSITY UNDER THE GOVERNMENT
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
"Marketing and Logistics"
on the topic: "Marketing research of the confectionery market in the Russian Federation"
Moscow 2013
Work plan
Introduction
Conclusion
Applications
Research Methodology
Object of study:
THE MARKET OF CONFECTIONERY PRODUCTS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Purpose of the study:
ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF THE MARKET AND FORECAST OF ITS DEVELOPMENT
Region of study:
RUSSIA AND REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Sources of information used in the study:
Federal State Statistics Service
Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
Federal Customs Service
The Federal Tax Service
Industry experts' assessments
Retail sales reports
Materials of the main industry players
Industry printed and electronic publications
Questionnaire survey of confectionery consumers
Data collection method:
Study of printed and electronic publications, statistical data, questionnaire survey.
Data analysis method:
content analysis of documents and analysis of the obtained personal data.
Introduction
As you know, in Russia they have always eaten a lot of sweets, starting with home-made lollipops-cockerels, to buns and bagels. I am no exception to this group of sweet lovers. Therefore, studying the confectionery market is of particular interest to me.
To begin with, let's define what confectionery products are: these are food products, most of which consist of sugar, most often modified, or another sweet substance (honey, xylitol, sorbitol), as well as molasses, various fruits, berries, nuts, etc. P.
Depending on the ingredients used, all types of confectionery products are divided into two main groups: floury and sugary.
Flour confectionery products include:
Cookies, gingerbread, cakes, pastries, flour-type oriental sweets, muffins, rolls, waffles.
Sugar products include:
caramel, sweets, chocolate, marmalade, marshmallow, marshmallow, halva, toffee, dragee, non-flour oriental sweets.
It is not surprising that the Confectionery market is one of the most highly competitive, which forces the manufacturer to be in constant search, develop new recipes and improve old ones. As a result, there has recently been a redistribution of market shares, within companies, and on the shelves in stores, there are also significant changes. In recent years, the level of personal consumption of confectionery products in Russia is approaching the maximum. Therefore, the main factors influencing the behavior of confectionery manufacturers in Russia is the gradual saturation of the market for sugar products. The ever-changing taste preferences of consumers, as well as intense competition, require the modernization of production and increasing labor productivity.
In my work, I would like to analyze the main indicators of the confectionery market in recent years, consider their dynamics, understand the main problems and directions of market development at the current stage.
Russian confectionery market
1. Dynamics of the confectionery market in recent years and development trends
Based on statistical data, the demand for confectionery products in Russia in 2007-2012. increased and in 2012 amounted to 3.4 million tons. The maximum growth of the indicator relative to the previous year was recorded in 2010 - 14%. In 2009, a 9% reduction in demand was noted. According to analysts, in 2013-2016. demand for confectionery products will grow and in 2016 will reach 3.9 million tons. The largest share in the structure of demand for confectionery products is occupied by sales in the domestic market. More than 41% of the total volume Russian production confectionery products account for the Central Federal District. The Volga Federal District occupies the fifth part in this structure. The share of the Siberian Federal District is 12%, the Northwestern Federal District is more than 10%, the Southern Federal District is about 7%, the Urals Federal District is more than 5%, and the Far Eastern Federal District is about 1.4%.
The regions with the largest volumes of confectionery production were the Moscow region, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Vladimir, Penza and Kemerovo regions. An increase in production volumes was recorded in many areas. The share of the Moscow region in the structure of Russian production of confectionery products became almost 9%, Moscow - about 8.0%, St. Petersburg - 5.3%, Lipetsk region - about 5%, Belgorod region - 4.4% and Vladimir region - four%.
The main feature of the confectionery market is its seasonality. Thus, in the warm season there is a high demand for flour confectionery, caramel, jelly and fondant sweets. Autumn and winter are the seasons for the sale of chocolate products, when boxed sets, usually purchased for the holidays, are considered a particularly strong position. The maximum growth in demand for products falls on the fourth quarter of each year, and the peak of sales is during the New Year holidays. A sharp decline in sales usually occurs in the first quarter. During the rest of the time, the volume of retail sales in value terms is also gradually growing, but at a slower pace.
The largest share in the structure of confectionery production in 2012 was occupied by the category of sugary confectionery products - it accounted for 51.1% of the total market volume. The largest Russian manufacturers of sugary confectionery products, in accordance with market shares in real terms, are LLC "Mars" (Moscow region), OJSC "Lipetsk confectionery factory Roshen, Kraft Foods Rus LLC (St. Petersburg), Rossiya Confectionery Association LLC (Samara Region), RotFront OJSC (Moscow), Slavyanka Plus LLC (Belgorod Region), Confectionery Concern OJSC "Babaevsky" (Moscow) and CJSC "Conti Rus" (St. Petersburg). In the domestic market of sugary products, these producers have been leading for several years in a row and currently occupy over 38% of the market in physical terms. The total share of long-term (gingerbread, cookies, waffles) and non-durable (cakes, pastries) storage confectionery products was 48.9%. Chocolate cost the most in the consumer market. Its average price in December last year was 445.5 rubles per kilogram, and it increased by 15% over the year. The highest growth was shown by prices for marshmallows and marshmallows: in December 2012 they cost 156.5 rubles per kilogram, and in the same period in 2011 - 132.8 rubles per kilogram. At the end of last year, average prices for biscuits and gingerbread were set at 92.4 rubles per kilogram and 81.2 rubles per kilogram, respectively. Several of the largest players in this segment currently hold about 17% domestic market flour confectionery products in kind. These include KDV Yashkino LLC (Kemerovo region), Chipita St. Petersburg LLC (St. Petersburg), Bryankonfi OJSC (Bryansk), Kreker LLC (Voronezh), Bolshevik OJSC (Moscow), CJSC "Russian Biscuit" (Cherepovets) and JSC "Confectionery Factory "Saratovskaya".
In 2007-2012 exports accounted for no more than 6% of demand. Over five years, sales of confectionery products in Russia increased by 592.3 thousand tons. The dominant trends of recent years include the emergence of a large number of new products and the expansion of the range of products of popular brands, due to which the industry has shown growth, and in recent years, consumers tend to eat right: healthy and wholesome food is not only fruits and vegetables, meat and fish, but also diet biscuits, low-calorie waffles, cookies with cereals.
In addition, one of the trends was the growing popularity of products in mini-packages, as well as large format packages created according to the concept of "share with a friend". The most popular confectionery among buyers in 2007-2012. were flour confectionery.
Export of confectionery products from Russia in 2007-2012 increased and in 2012 amounted to 190.7 thous. 31%. The main directions of export of confectionery products in 2007-2012. became Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The largest share in the export structure belongs to chocolate and cocoa products. The second place in terms of export volume was occupied by sugar confectionery.
Supply of confectionery products on the Russian market in 2007-2012 increased to 3.8 million tons in 2012. The decline in supply was recorded only in 2009 by 5% compared to 2008. the supply of confectionery products will grow by 2-4% per year. The main contribution to the supply of confectionery products in Russia is made by domestic production. The volume of production of confectionery products in 2007-2012 increased by 398.1 thousand tons. The largest share of the total production during this period was occupied by flour confectionery.
Import of confectionery products to Russia in 2007-2012 increased and in 2012 amounted to 302.9 thousand tons. Ukraine became the main supplier of confectionery products to the Russian market. More than 60% of all confectionery products imported into Russia during this period were chocolate and cocoa products.
2. Planned changes as a result of Russia's accession to the WTO
Basically, the Russian confectionery industry is represented by products own production, however, with WTO accession, it is expected that the volume of imported products will increase. As part of the agreement, the Russian Federation undertook to reduce duties on the supply of products with a sucrose content of more than 60% by 2015 to 10% (now it is 20%). Duty on products with a sucrose content of less than 60% will be halved. Import duty white chocolate will fall from 20 to 12% and will be at least 0.15 euro/kg, while now it should not be less than 0.25 euro/kg.
Their own rules impose obligations within the Customs Union: import duty candy caramel within the countries of the Union is currently 20%, by 2016 it should decrease to 14%.
It should be expected that "Eastern" and "Western" sweets will flow into the country like a river. Domestic producers have so far managed to maintain volumes mainly due to the expansion of the range, the introduction of new types of products.
Despite the high risks for domestic production associated with Russia's accession to the WTO, despite the raw material crisis (for cocoa beans), the Russian confectionery market can be considered fairly stable, and this trend will continue in the coming years. In addition, the consumer, especially in relation to flour confectionery, is more accustomed to trusting local producers, and it will not be easy to lure him with Western gingerbread.
Conclusion
Summing up, we can say that in recent years there has been a gradual saturation of the confectionery market. Among the main trends are the ever-changing taste preferences of consumers, as well as intense competition between manufacturers. Currently, manufacturers are maintaining production volumes mainly due to the expansion of the range, the introduction of new types of products. The current trend in confectionery fashion is healthy and natural sweets, which are positioned in higher price niches than all the others. Therefore, similar products appeared in the lines of most manufacturers. It is expected that the share of premium-class products will increase, inexpensive "budget" brands will gradually be replaced by "mid-price", "premium" and "luxury" brands. The main problem of confectionery companies today is unstable prices for raw materials, which negatively affects pricing, and, accordingly, work with chains with which annual contracts are concluded. Therefore, for the stable development of the company, first of all, it is necessary to create its own survival strategy in modern conditions. The main task of the manufacturer is to find his product, find his buyer and not disappoint him.
Thanks to Russia's accession to the WTO, the amount of duties on the import of foreign-made products will be reduced, as a result of which the number of foreign products will increase in the country, and competition will increase. However, new opportunities will open up for a number of manufacturers in the form of expanding exports to markets not only in the near, but also far abroad.
List of used literature
1.<#"center">Applications
Application No. 1
Frequency of buying confectionery products (based on a questionnaire)
Application №2
Criteria influencing the choice of a confectionery product (based on a questionnaire)
Application №3
Preferences among flour products
Application No. 4
Preferences among sugary products
Questionnaire for a survey of the population - consumers of confectionery products
Dear respondent!
Our organization conducts marketing research to identify consumer preferences when choosing confectionery products. We ask you to take part in the survey and answer the questions posed in the questionnaire. The questionnaire is anonymous.
Thank you in advance for your help!
)Do you buy confectionery?
)How often do you buy confectionery?
·Every day
·Once a week
·2-3 times a week
4-6 times a week
· Less than 1 time per month
2-3 times a month
·1 time per month
·never
3)What criteria most influence you when choosing a confectionery?
·Quality
· Product freshness
·Appearance
· Appearance of the package
Product price
·Compound
·Manufacturer
· Trying one type of product different manufacturers
· Buy new items
· Do not eat confectionery
4)What types of farinaceous products do you prefer?
·Cookie
Cakes
waffles
· Cupcakes, rolls
Gingerbread
biscuits, crackers
Other
5)What types of sugary products do you prefer?
·Candies
·Chocolate
·Potato
Jam, paste
Marmalade
· Chewing gum
Other
6)Which confectionery companies do you most often purchase?
·Mars
RotFront
Babaevsky
·Bolshevik
·Cracker
·Russia
Some information about the interviewee.
)What's your gender
·husband.
female
8)Your age is ______________ full years
9)Place of residence _________________________
___________________________________________________________
Socio-demographic portrait of respondents
No. Socio-demographic characteristics of respondents Share in the total sample, %1 Gender - total 100 men 20 women 802 Age - total 10018-236023-5030 Older than 50103 Place of residence - total 100 Moscow
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I want to note the serious changes in the Russian confectionery market, which have affected me, my family, and have not passed by each of you and your loved ones. These changes open up new opportunities, and it is precisely today that the confectionery store as a business is promising and timely. What are these changes, why a small business in the confectionery industry gets new chances for development, we will understand in a detailed article.
Story confectionery business has more than 20 centuries. The first merchants of sweets arrived in the territory of modern Europe from the east as early as the 6th-5th century BC. Primitive lollipops, simple baking, cottage cheese and sugar baklava were on the tables of the ancient nobility. In the Middle Ages, spices were brought to Europe from India and chocolate from South America. It was a revolutionary moment in the history of the confectionery business.
In France, coffee shops and chocolate shops were opened, in England, scones (a kind of cupcakes), popular to this day, appeared. Russian pretzels and pies also aroused interest abroad. However, it was not until the end of the 18th century that cultural traditions, different confectionery techniques, textures and completely different ingredients could be combined, and the next century is considered the birth of world confectionery cooking. France is considered to be its homeland. But there is another, no less popular direction. confectionery art¬- east.
It is difficult to compare French desserts and oriental delights, baklava and Saint Honoré, Turkish delight and Tiramisu. However, oriental techniques for making sweets have about 40% of fans all over the world, so you can’t ignore them.
Consumer demand for sweets has been at a high level for almost 300 years. Moreover, the change in market conditions is obvious: if back in the 1920s gingerbread and cakes were bought as a festive attribute, now the culture of consumption of sweets brings sweet dishes into everyday consumption.
We regularly see pastry shops and coffee houses on the streets, offering a wide range of complex and simple sweets. Strudels, cheesecakes, brownies, muffins, cupcakes are waiting for us at gas stations, in the halls of business centers, in parks and theater buffets, in street stalls and even McDonald's. Confectionery products from the group of elite privileged products have moved into the category of fast food.
But even this serious market change is not the root cause for a new round of development in the small business segment. The fact that cakes and pastries have become the usual affordable “fast food” for every day has led to their reduction in price at the expense of quality. Instead of butter confectioners use spreads instead of vegetable fats- animal or synthetic, etc. This makes the cost of the product lower, which allows you to survive in the competition.
The main features of the confectionery market in Russia
The Russian confectionery environment, thanks to the fundamental school of the Soviet Union, has a good quality theoretical and practical base. However, due to the closeness of Soviet policy, a moment of flexibility was lost. Now the dynamics of development of the domestic confectionery is significantly lower than the Western one. However, if we compare the quality of in-line products, then even taking into account the trend towards cheaper products, the products of our, Russian companies, can be called tasty and edible, which, alas, cannot be said about many European goods (let me emphasize, we are not talking about private confectionery shops yet).
Features of the Russian confectionery market are:
- short term of realization of products;
- the complexity of large-scale logistics and long-distance delivery;
- a huge number of types and subspecies of products;
- complete dependence of producers on the quality of raw materials from suppliers (ingredient products);
- consumption tradition home baking;
- a wide selection of authentic, local raw materials for fillers (berries, fruits, nuts;
- tight competition in the niche of inexpensive confectionery products and low competition in the segment of natural, high-quality, expensive products;
- the prevalence of small businesses in the segment of fresh baked goods.
Now, as mentioned above, the Russian confectionery market is filled with low-quality cheap products, and finding a cake that is tasty, beautiful, and at the same time natural and safe for children's health is almost impossible.
On this dissonance, private traders survive who make cakes to order, small mini-bakeries, private pastry shops that work for 1-2 cafes or a couple of shops. Therefore, now the confectionery shop as a business is interesting and has a good prospect of income.
Experts comment on the market:
Alto Consulting Group in its study of the Russian confectionery market focuses on the constant and non-stop growth of piece goods turnover. Number of items. produced on the territory of the Russian Federation is growing, consumption too. However, compared to the increase in prices in 2013, the current market, despite major changes in the ratio of currencies, has remained virtually unchanged. The quality of the ingredients is reduced, due to this, the retail price of a confectionery product, instead of a natural increase, is kept at the same level.
And now let's take a closer look at the prices themselves, broken down by the federal districts of Russia:
This picture demonstrates a hypothesis stating that the reduction in quality and cost of production releases a niche for high-quality fresh baked goods and / or complex confectionery products with a short shelf life. This is exactly the segment in which small businesses can thrive. We have already considered how to open a pastry shop or a pastry shop from scratch in one of the articles, so we will not dwell on this moment, but will limit ourselves to the statement that this business is now promising in a number of ways:
- large manufacturers work for the shaft, so they strive to maintain maximum sales times, which cannot be achieved using exclusively natural ingredients;
- the need for high-quality, natural and safe goods, especially in the segment of children's products, remains more and more unfulfilled;
- The market requires great flexibility from manufacturers, the ability to follow fashion and capture changing taste preferences, which large factories and concerns cannot technically implement or do it very clumsily and for a long time.
Here is the proof of the change in the structure of demand, as you can see from the graph below, the growth in the production of cakes and pastries is not long-term storage
Rice. 2. The number of tons of products by types of confectionery products produced in Russia for the period 2010-2013. Dynamics of market development in unit equivalent.
How the confectionery business works: a description of business models and a brief market analysis
As in any other segment, in the confectionery business there are several models that are implemented for the purpose of making a profit:
Model 1: Manufacture and sale of own products through a network of branded stores and / or contractors (a striking example is the Krasny Oktyabr Confectionery Factory, Moscow). The advantage of this model is direct communication with the consumer, and the disadvantage is high economic risks.
Model 2: Manufacture of products under the order of contractors (this is how the Lironas Confectionery Company, the Volga region, works). Plus models in reduced costs for the sale of products. but the downside is. that the manufacturer actually cannot track the buyer's reaction to a change in the assortment portfolio, prices. quality and does so through focus groups and research. which is also not cheap.
Model 3: Manufacture of products and sale through franchised customers. In this case, the manufacturer sells his products in stores operating under his trademark, for example, the Medobory confectionery shop, Crimea. The advantage of the model is that there are practically no costs for sales promotion and the creation of a distribution network, and the disadvantage is that the company's reputation cannot be controlled (if any of the franchised clients behaves inappropriately with the buyer, the manufacturer's image suffers).
In other words, you need to separate two business processes:
- production of confectionery products and their sale. There are companies that combine these two processes.
- manufacturing and wholesale, or wholesale and retail. There are enterprises that use only one process in full, and the second - in a truncated one.
Among the largest Russian manufacturers, one can also note the following: confectionery factory KDV Yashkino (Kemerovo region), confectionery group of enterprises "Konti", OJSC Lipetsk confectionery factory "Roshen", confectionery factory "Akkond" (Cheboksary), OJSC "Craft Foods Rus" (Vladimir region), Chipita confectionery factory (St. Petersburg), Galan confectionery factory (Krasnodar Territory), ROT FRONT JSC (Moscow).
Important points in the organization of the confectionery business are:
- selection of a niche for production / sale of products (today the snack group is filled, and an acute shortage is observed in the region cream products short storage);
- selection of a place and competent calculation of the turnover of a confectionery outlet;
- choice of supplier.
It is on the choice of a supplier that I would like to focus attention. When a novice entrepreneur is about to plunge into the confectionery market, it is important for him to get a hot commodity. To do this, you need to understand what kind of products you would like to sell.
Confectionery products are products of daily demand: on average, each resident of Russia in 2012 consumed 23 kg of sweets, of which 12 kg were sugary, and 11 kg were flour products. At the same time, about 18% of sweets are bought in Moscow.
Competition in the Russian confectionery market is high. Today, the industry has about 1,500 organizations in all regions of the Russian Federation and more than 15,000 local confectioneries (Rosstat data). enterprises producing 55 percent of the total annual turnover of products.
The largest segments of confectionery products in the Russian market:
- chocolate candies - 21%;
- all types of cookies (including crackers) - 20%;
- cream products (cakes, pastries) - 8%;
- bar and figured chocolate - 8%.
In the period 2010 - 2014, according to Rosstat, the share of imports is constantly decreasing and before the introduction of the food embargo in August, it was 12.2%. Domestic production, respectively, is about 87.8%. The main suppliers of sugary confectionery products to Russia (sugar products include sweets, caramel, toffee and dragees):
For thirteen years (2000-2013), according to Rosstat indicators, the demand for raw materials such as sugar has been steadily growing, and since sugar is an integral ingredient in confectionery, experts tend to see a direct relationship with an increase in demand for ready-made confectionery. The growth dynamics averages 5% annually. Those. we can say that every year the consumption of confectionery products in Russia increases by 5% (both in value and piece equivalent).
Experts believe that by 2017 the market volume will reach $4.5 billion.
Since confectionery products are not essential products, the demand for them is driven by tradition and external market influences.
The structure of food expenses of an average Russian family includes about 9.5 - 15% of the costs related to confectionery. With the size of the food basket of 1 Russian family (3 people) in the amount of 9.5 thousand rubles, an average of 1,500 rubles is spent on confectionery products per month. If this figure is attributed to the number of households in Russia (52,707 thousand), then we get the nominal market volume: 79 billion rubles per month.
Analysis of the seasonality of the confectionery business
Seasonal fluctuations in demand for confectionery products are an objective reality in all areas of the market. This factor has a significant impact on both sales volumes and their structure. Therefore, a comparative analysis in this industry is most adequately carried out by comparing the same periods of the reporting and last years, since adjacent periods can radically differ in terms of the level of turnover, the structure of sales, depending on the influence of holidays, fasting, the holiday season, the appearance of substitutes (berries, fruits), etc.
Below are the seasonality coefficients calculated on the basis of base December - as the month with the highest turnover in the confectionery industry, due to the pre-New Year mood of the consumer (see Figure 1, Diagram 1).
| Impact on consumer activity | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Year according to the old calendar | |||||
| Easter, parent's day | |||||
| the appearance of the first seasonal berries |
|||||
| Great demand for berries, fruits |
|||||
| holiday season in coastal and tourist regions | |||||
| September | holiday season in coastal and tourist regions |
||||
| weather demand |
|||||
| New Year, corporate holidays |
Periods with approximately the same level of buyer activity are highlighted with one color scheme.
Thus, the 1st phase of seasonality (orange) is characterized by increased demand, due to the presence of holidays. In this phase, February is weak due to the short monthly period.
Seasonal phase 2 (blue) is characterized by a sharp decline in demand until July, which is associated with Lent, the appearance of cheaper substitutes, and the onset of a warm period. In April, there is a change in the structure of production: the sale of cream products by weight decreases, the sale of flour products (Kulich) increases, which affects the turnover. This phase is most in need of marketing stimulation and maintenance of sales volume.
July (yellow) is a transitional month from phase 2 to phase 3 (green), characterized by a gradual increase in trade turnover and, accordingly, output. According to the seasonality coefficient, it is comparable with the 4th phase (yellow) of consumer activity observed in October, November, where the reverse trend is observed - a decrease in trade turnover and output due to the outflow of tourists from recreational areas, the absence of traditional public holidays until mid-December.
December (red) is the month with the highest turnover in the industry. These seasonal factors are average for the market as a whole.
Small business in the confectionery arena
The implementation of the confectionery business in the segment of private entrepreneurship is, as a rule, a cafe-confectionery. There are few options for implementing this format: a private trader can organize his own small production(confectionery shop for 100-300 kg per day) or purchase ready-made confectionery products from nearby suppliers.
The advantages of own production are direct contact with the consumer, the uniqueness of the offer and the ability to adapt the range to the needs of visitors. However, this is also the difficulty: in order to release a new type of product, the workshop must develop technological maps and change the production pattern. These are time and financial costs.
When purchasing products from a large supplier (or several), the exclusivity of the product itself is lost, but the risk of unjustified costs for the creation of production lines is leveled. In addition, this scheme is more quickly paid back.
Therefore, opening a confectionery cafe should be started with a fundamental decision: we produce it ourselves or we buy finished products from a large manufacturer. If an entrepreneur nevertheless decides to start his own mini-workshop, then the costs of a technologist, shift confectioners, equipment and storage facilities, where both finished products and blanks will be stored, should be taken into account.
It is warehouse storage that is often not provided for by novice businessmen, which leads to enormous problems: products are light, but very voluminous and capricious. For example. to accommodate 20-25 standard cakes, you need a rack with shelves 1.5 * 1.5 m in a cool place with a sanitary permit. And if we are talking about baking, then the cornerstone is the wear resistance of the equipment, since you cannot prepare such products for use.
Benchmarketing: Successful Examples of Implementing a Small Confectionery Business
Foreign models:
Ukraine
An unexpectedly interesting confectionery operates in the small Ukrainian town of Melitopol. Despite the provincial nature of the city itself, the confectionery surprises with sophistication, competent products, wide coffee card and original recipes:
Coffee house-confectionery "Bourgeois", Melitopol - restaurant project. This is a full-fledged coffee shop with its own confectionery shop. Interesting and refined products, classic interior and at the same time low prices (average bill $10-12).
France
CAFÉ POUCHKINE, Paris - patisserie in the style of an 18th century French palace. Visitors can choose from cakes with cream, honey, berries, fruits, jam, macaroons, custom-made cakes from cream, sweets, powdered sugar. Average bill $5-25
In 2017, the consumption of confectionery products amounted to 3,496.3 thousand tons, which is 4% higher than in 2016. The positive dynamics is not associated with a significant reduction in the cost of raw materials needed for the manufacture of products, as a result of which manufacturers managed to improve and expand their range in accordance with new consumer preferences (bitter chocolate, low-calorie products, unusual confectionery fillings, etc.). Basically, the dynamics of the market is significantly affected by the segment of chocolate and chocolate products, which occupies 50% of its volume.
According to a study by websitessia, the Russian market consists of 93.1% of domestic products. About 11.5% of the total volume of manufactured products was exported in 2017, mainly to Kazakhstan and Belarus.
Apparent confectionery consumption
In 2014-2015 against the backdrop of a reduction in real incomes, the population switched to a savings model of consumption, there was a reorientation of demand for cheaper food products, including economy-segment sweets. Chocolate and chocolate products, which are the most popular types of confectionery products, began to be replaced by cheaper confectionery products, which do not contain cocoa, and flour confectionery products with a long shelf life (cookies, waffles, gingerbread, etc.).
According to the results in 2016, the market volume increased by 1.7% to 3,317.6 thousand tons. In 2017, the volume of consumption of confectionery products amounted to 3,372.8 thousand tons, which is another 4.8% higher than the level of the previous year.
In value terms, the market showed stable growth during the period under review. In 2015-2017 market growth accelerated and reached a peak volume of RUB 1,372.1 billion. in 2017 against the background of a significant increase in prices for confectionery products.
Currently, despite the lack of growth in real incomes of the population, there is an increase in demand for high-quality products in the middle and premium segments. This is due to the growing popularity proper nutrition and a healthy lifestyle increases the demand for sugar-free chocolate and dark chocolate with a cocoa content of more than 85%, gluten-free desserts, products made from unrefined flour.
It is assumed that in the medium term, the growth in consumption of confectionery products in the Russian Federation will average about 1% annually due to the adaptation of producers and consumers to the current economic situation.
The volume of aggregate supply in the confectionery market in 2013-2018(O) and forecast for 2019-2025, thousand tons (under the base development scenario)
The structure of the confectionery market: production, export, import, consumption
The bulk of the Russian confectionery market is formed mainly by Russian-made products, which currently account for 92.6%.
Until 2014, the share of imported confectionery on the market was 12%. However, in 2014-2015 its share fell to 5.6% due to a significant increase in the cost of foreign products due to the depreciation of the ruble, an increase in prices for confectionery raw materials (sugar, flour, cocoa products, fats) and a reorientation of the consumer to cheaper domestic products.
After declining in 2015, exports of confectionery products show rapid growth in 2016-2017 due to increased activity of producers and exporters, development of trade in new directions and opening up for domestic manufacturers market of China. Belarus and Kazakhstan traditionally stand out among the importing countries (about 40% of all export deliveries), and over the past few years, China has taken the lead.
Russian manufacturers are expanding their product range and developing new segments, adjusting to the changing interests of consumers. Export volumes are expected to continue to increase in the medium term.
Dynamics and structure of the confectionery market in 2013-2018(O) and forecast up to 2025, thousand tons (under the base development scenario)
Structure of consumption by federal districts
In 2016, the largest share in the structure of consumption was occupied by the Central and Volga Federal Districts (26.7% and 19.9%, respectively). This is followed by the Siberian Federal District with a share of 13.2% and the Southern Federal District with a share of 11.2%. The current structure is formed largely due to the needs of the Central and Volga Federal Districts, population growth and solvent demand.
At the end of 2017, there were no significant changes in the structure of consumption of confectionery products: the Central and Volga Federal Districts remain the leaders (26.7% and 20.2%, respectively).
Structure of consumption of confectionery products by federal districts in 2013-2018(O)
Confectionery Market: Development Forecast
In the medium term, the confectionery market will not suffer major changes and will show stable growth at the level of 1-2% annually, which is due to continued recovery processes. Due to this, in 2018, consumption is expected in the amount of 3,597.9 thousand tons.
The development of the market will primarily be determined by the real income of the population, which affects the level of demand from the end consumer, as well as the prices for raw cocoa and the policy of the Russian Federation regarding the import of raw materials needed for the production of confectionery.
The cake market is divided into two large segments - products with a short and long shelf life.
Products with a three-day consumption period, which are produced by almost every bakery and confectionery workshop, are purchased by about 70% of housewives.
The modern market for cakes and pastries is characterized by the appearance of products that can be stored for a long time. The vast majority of companies strive for dynamic development, namely, to enter the federal level. In this regard, a wide variety of pies, cakes and muffins are made, which are not afraid of long-term transportation.
Such products are quite unpretentious in storage. Supporters classic cooking of perishable cakes do not perceive competition from such products, they simply do not classify it as part of their market.
Today, there is a tendency to purchase cakes not only for celebrations, but also for everyday consumption, especially for long-term storage cakes. Every year the range of the market is expanding, and buyers see a variety of new items from small regional and large domestic manufacturers.
According to experts, the culture of sweet consumption among the population is at the stage of formation, respectively, and the demand for high quality confectionery products will tend to increase.
In this regard, the consumption of cakes is increasing, especially if we compare the crisis years of 2008-2009, when there was a significant decline in sales.
It is important to note that the market is characterized by inelastic demand, so a slight increase in the cost of production will not affect sales. Therefore, it is much easier for manufacturers to adjust pricing in the event of an increase in prices for ingredients and components.
Consumer preferences in the market of cakes and other flour confectionery
The most preferred places to buy confectionery products are shown in the figure.
More and more companies are developing their own market strategy by complete cessation of use traditional recipes . The release of products that are unique in their kind fully justifies itself, since everything original is in demand. However, there is a tendency to import such finished product from the West.
Thus, in an advantageous position are trading companies, which organizes regular deliveries from European countries or manufacturers who have adopted the experience and technological support of foreign colleagues.
Almost every third consumer purchases cakes and pastries approximately once a month.
Based marketing research, our compatriots prefer local producers. The most popular places to buy flour confectionery products are small grocery stores and supermarkets. In the process of choosing products, the vast majority of people surveyed are guided by previous purchase experience. After that, attention turns to appearance, composition and cost of the cake.
If earlier the consumer paid special attention to the qualitative and quantitative composition of the product, today the short shelf life of the product is closely studied, which indicates its naturalness. The modern consumer is willing to pay for exceptional quality and the absence of preservatives, even at the expense of reduced frequency of use.
Due to the limited shelf life (72 -125 hours), the segment of classic cakes and pastries is exclusively a local market with competitive rules.
The growth rate of the market is held back by an acute shortage of professional confectioners.
At the same time, the consumption of cakes with a long shelf life is increasing every year. Cakes with whipped cream, as well as yoghurt and curd products are also popular.
The latter variety is characterized by the use of fresh and frozen berries, which contribute to the fortification of the cake. Fruit and berry products are perceived by consumers as a low-calorie confectionery product with obvious benefits for the body.
A high-tech business requires significant investment in equipment. Without a marketing budget, it will be quite difficult to organize and adjust the supply of products.
Without a doubt, cakes will be successful if a number of conditions are met: the proper level of quality, excellent taste characteristics, an interesting design of the box and product finish, recognizable trademark as well as reasonable price. Such promising products have every chance of becoming a brand.
Until 2015, the Russian confectionery market was one of the most actively developing segments of the consumer sector of the economy. Recently, however, the share of lovers of sweets began to fall sharply. The consumption of imported confectionery, primarily chocolate and flour products, decreased the most. According to a study of the bakery and confectionery market conducted in September 2016, compared to 2013, the share of buyers of cream products in Moscow decreased by 19 p.p., and the share of buyers of small-piece confectionery products (cookies, dried gingerbread) - by 5 p.p. .P. (Fig. 1)
Picture 1. Purchase of confectionery products in 2013 and 2016, % of respondents
Why is this happening?
The first reason that lies on the surface is the reduction in consumer spending by Russians due to the weakening of the ruble, the reduction in household incomes and rising consumer prices. Thus, according to the Center for Research on the Confectionery Market, in 2015, prices for confectionery products increased by an average of 24% in Russia as a whole.
The second trend, which, according to market experts, affects consumer activity, is the desire of an increasing number of Russians to bake bakery products on their own. In this regard, there was an increased demand for the purchase of ingredients for baking.
The desire of consumers to lead a healthy lifestyle, and manufacturers - not to lose their customers leads to a change in the positioning of confectionery and bakery products. The most common statements that accompany New Product on the global market, the following: “no additives and / or preservatives”, “low and / or free of allergens”, “whole grain”, “gluten free” and others. On the Russian market, there are such statements as “supporting a healthy condition and heart function”, “easy to use”, “eco-friendly packaging”, “to normalize digestion”, “for weight loss”, “non-GMO”, “enriched with protein” and others .
Also, more and more often specialized (for a specific group of people) bakery and confectionery products appear on the shelves of Russian stores and are in demand, for example, for pensioners or people with a certain type of disease.
Sweet satiety will not soon be full
As noted above, compared with 2013, the share of buyers of small-piece products decreased from 57% to 52%. It is important to note that the vast majority of Muscovites surveyed are still more likely to buy small-piece confectionery products in packages, rather than by weight. Women and youth continue to be more active buyers of these products. Also, women are generally more aware of confectionery manufacturers than men.
If we talk about the preferences of Muscovites in terms of types of confectionery, cookies, as in 2013, remain the most purchased in the capital - they are chosen by 76% of the surveyed buyers of "small things" (Fig. 2). It should be noted that for many types of confectionery there is a decrease in the share of buyers. Thus, Muscovites are less in demand for dried bread and bagels (-8 p.p.), marshmallows (-5 p.p.) and oriental sweets (-7 p.p.).
Figure 2. Preferences by types of small-piece confectionery products, % of the number of buyers
What's with what? It is possible to single out separate groups of small-piece confectionery products, the purchase of which is typical for the same consumers. For example, most often they buy marshmallows, marmalade and marshmallows together. Gingerbread cookies are purchased together with cookies, waffles and muffins. If Muscovites buy dryers, bagels, then there is a high probability that they will also buy sweet crackers. Oriental sweets purchased by those who love cookies and waffle cakes. The results obtained indicate the interchangeability of certain small-piece confectionery products included in one group, which in particular can manifest itself in a situation of joint purchase of specific types of products, as well as an alternative to others.
As for the places to buy confectionery, the following picture is observed here: supermarkets and hypermarkets are becoming an increasingly popular place to buy sweets. In 2013, 57% of the surveyed Muscovites purchased “small things” there for themselves and their families, today this share has grown to 69%. At the same time, there is a decrease in the share of buyers of confectionery products in convenience stores: 18% against 34% in 2013 (Figure 3).
Figure 3 Places of purchases of small-piece confectionery products, % of small-piece buyers
If we talk about the level of expenses of Muscovites for one purchase of small-piece confectionery, then, according to data for 2016, 66% of respondents spend no more than 300 rubles at a time, which is comparable to the data of a study conducted in 2013.
It is also interesting that over the past 3 years the level of confidence of Muscovites in Russian confectionery manufacturers has significantly increased (from 52% in 2013 to 63% in 2016). Moreover, this happened not due to an increase in distrust towards foreign manufacturers, but due to a decrease in the proportion of those who answered “it's hard to say, it depends on the specific brand”.
If they don't have bread, let them eat cake!
The share of buyers of cream confectionery products has significantly decreased compared to 2013. However, this had little effect on the frequency of buying cakes and pastries, on the contrary, the share of those who bought pastries several times a week increased by 6 p.p. and at the time of the survey was 12%.
The main place to purchase cream products, as well as “small things”, is retail chains - it is chosen by 62% of buyers of cream products. Manufacturers' branded stores are less popular, where 16% of the respondents buy these products, and no more than 7% of respondents buy them in specialized confectionery stores and bakeries.
Consumers of cakes began to purchase products that are lighter in weight: 45% of the Muscovites surveyed weighed less than a kilogram of their last purchase, while in 2013 the share of such purchases was 34%. The reason for this decline can be explained, at least, by the fact that cream cakes, which have the smallest volume, require more significant costs from buyers.
Figure 4 Weight of last purchase cream cake, % of buyers of cream products
At the same time, the cost of the average purchase of cakes increased significantly compared to 2013 (by 23%) and amounted to 611 rubles. As for cakes, on average, Muscovites spent 241 rubles on the last purchase of this product.
The most recognizable and bought products in Moscow are products manufactured under the U Palycha brand (Company M LLC, Samara), - 91% of buyers of cream products know this brand, and 55% have purchased it over the past 6 months. The products of KF Oktyabr LLC (Moscow region) and Fili-Baker LLC (Moscow) are also highly recognizable - they are chosen by 74 and 67% of respondents, respectively (Figure 5).
Figure 5 The fame of manufacturers of cream confectionery. TOP-10, % of buyers of cream products
Existing trends in the consumer market, namely: rising prices, lower consumer spending and household incomes, focus on healthy and healthy foods, affected the purchasing preferences of Muscovites and had a negative impact on the confectionery and bakery products market as a whole. But, despite some negative wave, such an atmosphere always leads to new discoveries, expanding the range, improving product quality.
The study was conducted by telephone survey among Muscovites aged 18 to 60 who buy bakery and confectionery products in May-June 2013, 938 people were interviewed, in September 2016 - 1205 people.